Dean hasn’t won the Democratic nomination yet. Despite the hoopla about Dean being ahead in super delegates, not one vote has been cast in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. Steven Taylor, at PoliBlog, correctly points out that the superdelegates loyalties are fluid. Superdelegates aren’t bound to vote for any particular candidate.
A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds Clark in one of those “statistical dead heats” with Dean. This despite the fact that in two December polls, Dean lead Clark by 15 and 21 points. In the Jan. 2-5 national poll Dean leading Clark 24% vs. 20%, only a 4% difference which is within the poll's margin of error.
The Gallup organization explanation of this movement is good news for Clark:
This tightening of the race among Democrats nationally mostly results from increased support for Clark, rather than a decline in support for Dean. Clark gained eight points over the last two weeks, while Dean lost three points, and the number of undecided Democrats declined by three points.The new poll also uncovers a developing gender gap between Dean and Clark. Democratic Men now prefer Clark over Dean. In December men preferred Dean by a 2 to 1 margin. Women still favor Dean.
This new poll shouldn’t be surprising to everyone. Last December, in this post, I took note of the fact that Ed Thibodeau, at Nonplussed, and
PoliPundit predicted then that the democratic race would ultimately be reduced to a two man race between Dean and Clark.
I will now be watching their predictions more closely.
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