Kerry Gambling On Negative Perception Of Economy

Kerry is gambling that his negative message about a struggling economy and loss of jobs will resonate despite rising public optimism. The Associated Press reports:

Kerry and Edwards have a bigger selling job than Reagan had in 1980 when he defeated President Carter or Clinton had in 1992 when he beat the first President Bush.

In June 1980, three-fourths of Americans disapproved of Carter's handling of the economy at a time of rising inflation and little growth.

In June 1992, three-fourths disapproved of the elder Bush's economic performance when the economy was just starting to revive.

An AP-Ipsos poll this month found that voters were about evenly divided about the current president's handling of the economy, with 49 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving. Also, consumer confidence has been on the rise.

In a twist on the old Reagan question, those in the AP poll were asked: "Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation better today, worse today or about the same?"

Four in 10 respondents said better, 34 percent said the same and 26 percent said worse.

In July 1992, only one-quarter of Americans said they were doing better than four years earlier.

"By far, Kerry and Edwards have a harder case to make," said Marlin Fitzwater, a spokesman for Reagan and the elder Bush.

"In 1980, it was a successful argument for President Reagan because everybody in the country felt the weight of the failing economy on a daily basis. It was a truly fearsome reality to see how inflation was taking hold," Fitzwater said.

I guess this is what Vice President Cheney meant when he said:

"The fall election will present a choice between hope and negativism.

"What we're hearing from the other side is the failed thinking of the past," Cheney, in shirt sleeves, said in his 25-minute speech from the Minneapolis Convention Center. "And we're not going back."

The AP-Ipsos poll mentioned in the AP's Kerry's Gambling article found:

The Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs CASH Index measuring consumer attitudes rose in July to 92, up from 91.3 in June, marking the third consecutive month of increases. The CASH Index is based on ten questions measuring consumer attitudes, asked monthly since January 2002, when the Index was originally established with an index score of 100.

The CASH Index has been generally trending upward since October 2003, when it stood at 74.4, and while it has been higher in some recent months (106.3 in January 2004, 100.7 in December 2003), its general trajectory since October 2003 has been positive.

One year ago, the index stood at 80.5.

[. . .]

Currently, 20% rate the economy in their area as strong (6 or 7 on a 1-to-7 scale), 26% rate it weak (1-3), with 53% in the middle (4-5).

Bush voters feel better about their local economy (34% strong, 12% weak) than Kerry voters (10% strong, 40% weak). Among those in Bush’s base of strong supporters, suburban men are more likely to rate the current economy strong (29%) rather than weak (17%).

Kerry is making a bad bet by gambling on a negative economy. This morning, Rasmussen Reports' tracking of economic confidence finds consumer confidence near record levels:

Sunday July 18, 2004--The Rasmussen Consumer Index rose another point on Sunday to 123.5. The Index, which measures the economic confidence of American consumers on a daily basis, is up one-and-a-half points from a week ago, up four points from a month ago and up twelve points from three months ago. It is within four points of the highest level ever recorded since the Index was created in October 2001.

The Rasmussen Investor Index also moved up one point on Sunday to 144.6. It has now remained above the 140 mark for five straight days. The Investor Index is up four from a week ago, up three from a month ago and up nine from three months ago.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Americans believe the U.S. economy is in a recession. That's the lowest level ever recorded since the Rasmussen Index was established in October 2001.

Among Investors, just 28% believe the U.S. is still in a recession while 56% disagree.

I don't understand how a third of Americans think we are still in recession.

Comments

[Steve]

>>I don't understand how a third of Americans think we are still in recession.>>

I think it's because so many decent paying manufacturing jobs have left Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, the Carolinas etc, and headed to Mexico and China.

If any of us were one of the unemployed or underemployed, we'd probably feel the same way.

Ultimately, Bush-Cheney don't have to make an economic case to the nation as a whole - they have to make it in the battleground states (Many listed above) and that's why Kerry thinks he holds the cards.