President Bush Gains In Connecticut

A recent poll shows Kerry's lead over President Bush has shrunk to only seven points. According to the Greenwich Time:

Connecticut, which voted overwhelmingly for Al Gore in 2000, had been considered a lock for Kerry. But, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, conducted Aug. 11-17 among 1,079 registered voters, Kerry leads Bush by seven points -- 45 percent to 38 percent -- with independent candidate Ralph Nader, a Connecticut native, taking six percent of the vote. Bush leads Kerry 43 percent to 36 percent in Fairfield County, according to the same poll.

Less than two months earlier, in a Quinnipiac poll conducted June 27-28 among 979 registered voters, Kerry held an 18-point lead over Bush in the state, 50 percent to 32 percent, with nine percent of voters favoring Nader.

This is simply amazing. President Bush has momentum going into the RNC.

Jim Himes, the chairman of the Democratic Town Committee in Greenwich, was quoted dismissing talk of Bush winning Connecticut:

"There's no way that President Bush wins Connecticut," he said. "It's wishful thinking on their part. Frankly, if Kerry can't win Connecticut, he's going to get crushed, and I don't think that will be the case."

The conventional wisdom around here still has Kerry winning Connecticut, but if Kerry's September is anything like his August we may see Mr Himes' crushing of Kerry.

Comments

[Mark Madsen]

Actually, I'm probably wrong about Nader's eventual status on the CT ballot. He'll likely make it unless too many of the 12,000 signatures submitted turn out to be invalid. So I take back my comment from yesterday.

Nader's looking bleak overall, though. Currently he's certified on the ballot in states which account only for 5.83% of the voting population and 37 electoral votes. He's absolutely NOT on the ballot in states which account for 48.25% of the voting pop and 239 electoral votes, leaving the necessity of securing ballot victories in nearly ALL of his remaining "TBD" states to have even a _theoretical_ chance of victory.

My mind boggles at why you'd keep running under such circumstances.

[Mark Madsen]

Given that Nader's not on the ballot in CT (according to CT Elections Division as of last Thursday), the more interesting question will be how the six percent that are polling Nader will break -- equally to both candidates, or will the folks who prefer Nader break to Kerry when their candidate doesn't appear on the Nov. ballot? Nationally speaking, it's likelier the latter than the former, which means that despite polls, Kerry retains a substantial electoral lead in CT, even if polls are narrower.