Bush Ahead In Ohio, Fla. And Pa.

USA Today reports that a New USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll finds President Bush widened his advantage with likely voters in Florida, taken the lead in Pennsylvania, and maintains a small margin over Kerry in Ohio.

FLORIDA
Likely Voters
Bush 52%
Kerry 43%
Registered Voters
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
The poll taken September 24-27 shows an improvement for President Bush from the September 18-22 poll when the President led 49%-46% among likely voters and 47%-45% among registered voters.

OHIO
Likely Voters
Bush 49%
Kerry 47%
Registered Voters
Bush 46%
Kerry 49%
The poll taken September 25-28 found a smaller lead for President Bush than the September 4-7 poll, when the President led 52%-43% among likely voters.

PENNSYLVANIA
Likely Voters
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%
Registered Voters
Bush 45%
Kerry 49%
The poll taken September 25-28 found improvement for President Bush from the poll taken August 23-26 in which the President and Kerry were tied at 47% among likely voters and Kerry led by 6% among registered voters.

The margin of error is ± 4% for all three polls. Gallup's analysis is here. It's summed up in the first paragraph:

As the presidential campaign heads into a new phase -- the period around the presidential and vice presidential debates -- new CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls show President George W. Bush leading Democratic nominee John Kerry in Florida, while both candidates are engaged in tighter races in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Third party candidate Ralph Nader only gets as much as 2% of the vote in any of those states, although he was recently removed from the Ohio ballot by a court decision. These three states could easily determine the winner of the upcoming election, as each will reward the winner with 20 or more electoral votes.

Comments

[chris]

The interesting thing is that according to the betting line - Bush is a much bigger favorite in Ohio than in Florida.

http://large-regular.blogspot.com/2004/10/presidential-odds-only-poll-i-pay.html