North Korean Explosion Not Nuclear

CNN reports that the huge explosion that shook North Korea's northernmost province on Thursday and produced a mushroom cloud was not the result of a nuclear explosion. The explosion was reported to have taken place "not far" from a military base that holds North Korea's Taepo-dong ballistic s and an underground firing range. According to CNN South Korea's Unification Minister Chung Dong-yong said he believed there was no correlation between the explosion and reports of North Korea preparing for a possible nuclear test.

Earlier this morning, the Associated Press reported a large explosion occurred in the northern part of North Korea, sending a huge mushroom cloud into the air on an important anniversary of the communist regime:

The Yonhap news agency, citing an unidentified diplomatic source in Seoul, said the explosion happened at 11 a.m. local time Thursday in Yanggang province near the border with China. The blast in Kim Hyong Jik county left a crater big enough to be noticed by a satellite, the source said.

"We understand that a mushroom-shaped cloud about 3.5- to 4-kilometer (2.2 miles to 2.5 miles) in diameter was monitored during the explosion," the source said. Yonhap described the source as "reliable."

Thursday was the anniversary of the 1948 foundation of the communist regime. Leader Kim Jong Il uses the occasion to stage performances and other events to bolster loyalty among the impoverished North Korean population.

Experts have speculated that North Korea might use a major anniversary to conduct a nuclear-related test, though there was no immediate indication that the reported explosion on Thursday was linked to Pyongyang's efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

"It remains unclear whether it was a deliberately planned nuclear test or it was just an accident," the source in Seoul told Yonhap. "But it doesn't seem to be an ordinary explosion."

Agence France Presse reported:

The explosion appeared to be stronger than an April 22 blast that killed more than 150 people and wounded some 1,300 others in Ryongchon near the western tip of North Korea's border with China, it said Sunday.

The New York Times reports that President Bush top advisers received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon:

While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles.

Some analysts in agencies that were the most cautious about the Iraq findings have cautioned that they do not believe the activity detected in North Korea in the past three weeks is necessarily the harbinger of a test. A senior scientist who assesses nuclear intelligence says the new evidence "is not conclusive," but is potentially worrisome.

[. . .]

The activities included the movement of materials around several suspected test sites, including one near a location where intelligence agencies reported last year that conventional explosives were being tested that could compress a plutonium core and set off a nuclear blast. But officials have not seen the classic indicators of preparations at a test site, in which cables are laid to measure an explosion in a deep test pit.

On Saturday, North Korea said recent revelations that South Korea conducted secret nuclear experiments involving uranium and plutonium made the communist state more determined to pursue its own nuclear programs. The Washington Post reports that South Korea was more successful than Iran in producing the key ingredient for a bomb and used deception to conceal the illegal activity from U.N. inspectors for years:

In interviews late last week, diplomats with knowledge of both covert programs disclosed that South Korean scientists enriched uranium to levels four times higher than did their counterparts in Iran. Seoul conducted those experiments, in violation of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, two years before Iran did and kept them secret for nearly two years after Iran's came to light, said the diplomats, who could discuss the investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency only on the condition of anonymity.

The South Koreans appear to have experimented with smaller quantities of uranium than Iran did, and there is no indication that Seoul invested the kind of money and resources that Tehran has put into its program, the diplomats said.

South Korea's subterfuge will only make dealing with North Korea and Iran even more difficult. Now we will hear nothing except allegations of a double standard.

UPDATE: Reuters is now reporting that both the U.S. and South Korean officials said on Sunday that the explosion was unlikely to have been a nuclear weapons test.

This story was getting a lot of coverage in the blogoshere. At Garfield Ridge, Dave posts that having tried bribery and multilateral negotiations there are no good options left.

At Wizbang, Kevin wonders if we can persuade China to annex North Korea.

At The American Mind, Sean posted seismograph recordings.

Rooftop Report posted that "this story woke everybody up.

Right On Red posted about the Clinton administration's failed attempts to freeze dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons program in exchange for international aid to build two power-producing nuclear reactors.

At In The Bullpen asks why was this report showed up in the media three days after the event. Good question.

More coverage at Allah Is In The House, Say Anything, , The Command Post, This Blog Is Full Of Crap, The Baby Seal Club, , Winds of Change, The Slithery D, Blogs of War, and Captain's Quarters.

Comments

[creena]

We have satelites that can see through cloud cover coupled with the most advanced radar imaging systems known to mankind and our Gov. throws us "It's not nuclear bone and we don't know what it is". WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[f. renzy]

And if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.