New ABC News Poll finds that this year the electorate is divided more along marital lines than gender lines:
Men support George W. Bush over John Kerry by an eight-point margin in the latest ABC News tracking poll, while women are split between the candidates. In 2000 there was a bigger difference between the sexes: Bush +11 among men, Al Gore +11 among women.
[. . .]
Married voters -- men and women -- are strong Bush groups: Married women support him by 19 points, 56-37 percent, and married men by 22 points, 59-37 percent. Kerry, though, is favored by six in 10 single men and women alike.
The Marital Gap
Marrieds
Bush 58%
Kerry 37%
Singles
Bush 38%
Kerry 60%
Married Men
Bush 59%
Kerry 37%
Single Men
Bush 39%
Kerry 60%
Married Women
Bush 56%
Kerry 37%
Single Women
Bush 37%
Kerry 60%
This is good news for President Bush because there are a lot more married voters than single voters. Only a third of likely voters, 37 percent. According to ABC:
Married voters are more likely to be Republicans, while single voters are far more likely to be Democrats (especially single women) -- helping to explain their vote differences. Singles are also more apt to be liberals, to be younger, to be minorities, and to be in lower-income households -- all groups that are part of Kerry's base.
Bush's base, however, is larger. If, as usual, many more married voters show up at the polls on Election Day than single ones, Kerry will need to close the gap with Bush among married women.
The poll was conducted October 19-21 and has three-point error margin for the likely voter sample.
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