Bloomberg reports that Kerry leads President Bush by 3 percent among likely voters in a new Reuters/Zogby International tracking poll, while a Washington Post tracking poll shows President Bush ahead of Kerry by 5 percentage points.
Reuters/Zogby International Tracking Poll
Bush 44%
Kerry 47%
The poll was conducted October 8-10 and has an margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.
Washington Post Tracking Poll
Bush 51%
Kerry 46%
The poll was conducted October 8-10 and has an margin of error of 2.5 points. The Washington Post and ABC collect their data jointly, though they use separate methods to identify likely voters.
Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%
The poll was conducted October 8-10 and has a margin of error is plus or minus 2 percent.
According to Rasmussen, Friday night's Presidential debate didn't change many minds, but it had a measurable impact on voter perceptions of Bush and Kerry:
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now believe that Senator Kerry is politically liberal. That's up six points from before the debate and the highest level of the year.
The tracking polls sample potential voters daily and combine the results of three consecutive nights, dropping the first night's results when a new day is added.
I'd like to ignore the Zogby results because the Washington Post and Rasmussen results are similar, but Zogby had the best prediction in 2000.
At this point it's more important to watch electoral college projections. The presidential election is after all 51 seperate elections.
The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows President Bush with 240 Electoral Votes, Kerry with 179, and 119 in the Toss-Up category.
Real Clear Politics projects the electoral votes count as Bush 264 - Kerry 220.
Ed Fitzgerald at Unfutz is tracking electoral vote projections at 50 sites. President Bush wins in 39 of the 50 sites and 7 others show him ahead. President Bush is projected to win 283 to 291 votes, and Kerry has 227 to 243.
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