Almost two years ago, Newsweek published this article claiming that al-Qaeda was diverting a fighters from Afghanistan to Iraq. The article also claims that al-Qaeda decided to "reorganize the distribution of funding" reducing monthly payments to the Afghan resistance from $3 million to $1.5 million.
Yesterday, Strategy Page tells us that Arab terrorist resources in Iraq produced too little in Iraq except hostility to al Qaeda as a result of all the Iraqis killed in terrorist attacks, so al-Qaeda is trying to return to Afghanistan:
The Taliban has attracted additional money, and suicide bombers, from Arabia. Two years ago, most of this support shifted to Iraq, where al Qaeda believed it had a better chance of winning some kind of victory. But too many Arab terrorist resources in Iraq produced nothing, and Iraqis have become very hostile to al Qaeda as a result of all the Iraqis killed by terrorist attacks. So now, efforts are shifting to Afghanistan. However, this is also a hostile environment for Arab terrorists. This goes back to the late 1990s, and used a brigade of al Qaeda gunmen to keep unruly tribes in line. Most of the al Qaeda enforcers were Arabs, who did not hide their disdain for the "primitive" Afghans. This has not been forgotten. Moreover, Arabs stand out more in Afghanistan, where most Afghans are European or Central Asian in appearance (the majority of Afghans belong to ethnic groups related to the ones that overran Europe thousands of years ago.) Afghans have been quick to turn in suspicious Arabs, or any suspected terrorist activities.
I can't argue with the analysis I just hope the pessimism is deserved.