Iraqi Terrorism Isn't Over

At, The Indepundit, Smash declares victory posting that with the Iraqi's voting to select their own parliament al-Qaeda is defeated. Iraqi's, even the Sunnis, rejected Zarqawi and have opted participate in the democratic process. Smash reminds us that Zarqawi predicted this result in a letter to Bin Laden, intercepted by Coalition Forces last January.

At RedState, Steven Den Beste writes that Smash is probably correct that this is the end for al-Qaeda, but cautions that doesn't mean that this is the end of terrorism in Iraq.

Den Beste, predicts the Iraqi insurgency will evolve into something like the bifurcation of the IRA with an "activist wing" and a "political wing." Those in the political wing will disavow any knowledge of the activists and deny any ability to influence them:

Sunni members of parliament will begin to make demands for constitutional changes, and as they encounter resistance, there will be a rise of terrorist attacks by the Sunni insurgency. The MPs will regretfully announce that there's nothing they can do about it, but you know, if you just give us ground on these amendments, maybe the attacks will slow or stop.

War is violence intended to accomplish a political goal. The Sunnis have now given up on the idea of preventing a democratic government being formed; it's pretty much now fait accompli. The best they can hope for now is to try to influence the structure and policy of that government to their own benefit.

According to Den Beste, the new threat won't be a sustained terrorist campaign intending to derail the political process, it will be a campaign intended to influence that process to the benefit of the terrorists and their sympathizers. The thing we will need to guard against is a backlash by the Kurds and/ or the Shiites against the Sunnis.

I agree we have achieved major victories in setting the Iraqis, and Afghans as well, on the road to democratic governance. But it is much too soon to declare victory over al-Qaeda. Especially with the defeatists among us providing the terrorists a sense of hope, hopefully false, that the American public will tire of this struggle before we see it through to a complete victory in the War On Terror. This is what makes Smash's point about coverage provided by the main stream media so important.

Comments

[Walter E. Wallis]

There will always be some people who can't hack it and turn on society to get even, but hey there are places in Frisco more dangerous than Baghdad.