Disregarding warnings from neighbors, the U.N. and the U.S., North Korea announced it has successfully conducted an underground nuclear test. The rouge country’s official news agency issued the following statement:
The field of scientific research in the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006, at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation.
The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA [Korean People’s Army] and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability.
It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it.
South Korea's seismic monitoring center said a magnitude 3.6 tremor felt at the time of alleged North Korea nuclear test wasn't a natural occurrence. A tremor of that size could indicate an explosive equivalent to 550 tons of TNT, far smaller than the atomic bomb that struck Hiroshima, Japan in World War II.
If North Korea actually conducted a nuclear test, it is not clear whether the explosion was from an atomic weapon. If it was a weapon, the small seismic footprint suggests that North Korea was able to make a device small enough to be delivered by a missile or on an aircraft.
On Sept. 19, 2005, North Korea signed a denuclearization agreement with the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. In that agreement, North Korea pledged to "abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs." In return, Washington agreed that the United States and North Korea would "respect each other's sovereignty, exist peacefully together and take steps to normalize their relations."
Headlines about that agreement suggested that the great nuclear stand-off over North Korea's nuclear arms program had been resolved.
The headlines sounded too good to be true because they were. There was no agreement, pledge or vow that North Korea will do away with its nuclear arms programs. A careful reading of the joint statement reveals the parties only agreed to four things:
First, the six parties agreed to the six items in the joint statement. The statement is nothing more than a list of observations, three of which concern agreements;Second, In section 4 of the joint statement, the six parties "agreed to explore ways and means for promoting security cooperation in northeast Asia;"
Third, in section 5 of the joint statement the six parties "agreed to take coordinated steps to implement the aforementioned consensus in a phased manner in line with the principle of 'commitment for commitment, action for action;'" and
Fourth, in section 6 of the joint statement, the six parties "agreed to hold the fifth round of the six party talks in Beijing in early November 2005 at a date to be determined through consultations."
Diplomatic efforts with North Korea has never resulted in satisfactory results. Consider this time line, prepared by the Arms Control Association, summarizing the efforts to end North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs between 1985 and 2003.
The world will condemn North Korea's nuclear test, just as it did North Korea's missile tests. No penalty that North Korea considers meaningful will be imposed. North Korea will take that as a signal that the world doesn't truly object. The rouge state will continue to do whatever it wants until the unthinkable happens.
UPDATE:
The Washington Post has a good summary of reactions to the North Korean announcement that it has conducted a nuclear test:
Chinese authorities immediately condemned the test. North Korea "has ignored the widespread opposition of the international community and conducted a nuclear test brazenly on October 9," China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its Web site. "The Chinese government is firmly opposed to this."The White House did not immediately confirm the test, but spokesman Tony Snow said in a statement: "U.S. and South Korean intelligence detected a seismic event Sunday at a suspected nuclear test site in North Korea. A North Korean nuclear test would constitute a provocative act, in defiance of the will of the international community and of our calls to refrain from actions that would aggravate tensions in northeast Asia. We expect the Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act."
[. . .]
Russia's defense minister said the reported test was equivalent to between 5,000 tons and 15,000 tons of TNT, the Associated Press reported.
[. . .]
In a news conference in Seoul, visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the possession of nuclear weapons by North Korea "greatly threatens the northeast Asian region" and the rest of the world. Combined with North Korea's development of longer-range ballistic missiles, he said, the testing of a nuclear weapon constitutes a "major threat" that extends "beyond northeast Asia."
[. . .]
The European Union also said it "strongly condemns" the North Korean test.
Russia demanded that North Korea immediately resume six-party talks on its nuclear program and return to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Pyongyang had defied the "unanimous will" of the international community and that Russia would take its demands to the U.N. Security Council.
In Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency said, "This reported nuclear test threatens the nuclear non-proliferation regime and creates serious security challenges not only for the East Asian region but also for the international community."
At The Fourth Rail, Bill Roggio reminds us that we can thank Pakistan's A.Q. Khan for assisting North Korea's nuclear development.
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