Michigan Race Close

The day before the Michigan primary, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are in a close race. At least that's what the polls say.

According to US News Political Bulletin recent polls are split with three polls showing McCain leading and three polls showing Romney leading:

An American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters conducted January 9-11 has McCain at 34%; Romney, 27%; Huckabee, 15%; Rep. Ron Paul, 9%; Rudy Giuliani, 5%; and Fred Thompson, 4%. A Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll of 600 likely voters conducted January 9-12 has McCain at 27%; Romney, 26%; Huckabee, 19%; Giuliani, 6%; Thompson, 5%; and Paul, 4%. A Zogby International poll shows McCain leading Romney 27%-24%, followed by Huckabee, 15%; Paul, 8%; Giuliani, 6%; and Thompson, 5%. Zogby surveyed 913 likely GOP voters from January 9-13.

[. . .]

A Detroit Free Press/Local 4 Michigan poll of 600 likely voters conducted January 9-11has Romney at 27%; McCain, 22%; Huckabee, 16%; Paul, 5%; Giuliani, 4%; and Thompson, 4%. A McClatchy /MSNBC poll of 400 likely voters conducted January 9-11 has Romney at 30%; McCain, 22%; Huckabee, 17%; Thompson, 7%; Giuliani, 6%; and Paul, 5%. A Rasmussen poll of 371 likely voters conducted January 9 has Romney at 26%; McCain, 25%; Huckabee, 17%; Thompson, 9%; Paul, 8%; and Giuliani, 6%.

After two second-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire despite spending more money than any other candidate Romney is seen as needing to win Michigan:blockquote>It's a state where he has name recognition and family history, where he owns one of his three homes and has already spent some $3 million on television ads.The Los Angeles Times sums it up this way:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the son of a popular former Michigan governor and auto executive, needs a win to counter growing perceptions that he can't do better than his second-place finishes in the first two significant nominating contests.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, who won here in 2000, needs a win to keep his New Hampshire-born comeback alive.

And a first-place showing by Mike Huckabee could help propel the former Arkansas governor through the South Carolina and Florida primaries heading into the coast-to-coast balloting Feb. 5, on which former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who is not campaigning in Michigan, has pinned his hopes for the nomination.

Similarly, the Los Angeles Times says Romney "needs a win to counter growing perceptions that he can't do better than his second place finishes in the first two significant nominating contests," while McCain "needs a win to keep his New Hampshire-born comeback alive."

The Washington Post reports Romney is tying his fate to the survival of the American auto industry, casting himself as the champion of its workers while blaming McCain for Washington's indifference to its plight.

I'll post my prediction guess as to who will win the Michigan primary later today.

Comments

[Laura Scharfenkamp]

Mike Huckabee is a true problem solver. And boy do we have problems in Michigan! When he left office the median Aransas income was 50% higher than when he got in. An overall 3.5% tax increase is a decrease if you're making alot more money! With improved raods, the arts in education, better test scores etc...and a balnced budget every year- that's an impressive record.

[Tim]

Mitt Romney is making a turnaround in Michigan. He is reaching out to the people there and they are reaching back. He will work to restor America's economy as a producing economy, not just a spending economy. We need manufacturing jobs like those in Michigan to do that. For all the good thing John McCain has done he has also been a large part of the problem with Washington. Mitt is here to correct the course, and I will vote for him to do it.

[L.Step]

You know, I really fear that McCain might win... Awk! The guy never recovered from his days in the Hanoi Hilton and wants to go back, like Rambo, to "finish the job". If you have ever had to deal with a guy who had that sort of fixed hostile grin on his face you know what I mean. He really hates Ron Paul.... who dared to suggest that we can, right now, get the hell out of that bloody stinking religious cesspool between Palestine and Pakistan. McCain, and the rest of the candidates, Republican and Democrat, with the exception of Paul, will continue this illegal, immoral, impractical unconstitutional war, based upon lies, against a nation that did not threaten us -- had been indeed, not long back, our friend. As Paul said, "What's going on here?"