Mitt Romney now leads the Real Clear Politics Average for the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus by 1.0:
- Romney - 21.8%
- Paul - 20.8%
- Santorum - 12.3%
- Gingrich - 15.3%
- Perry - 10.5%
- Bachmann - 9.5%
- Huntsman - 3.0%
The RCP average includes polling data from December 19 through 28, 2011.
A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll finds Paul and Romney tied in the Iowa Republican Presidential race among registered voters who will be voting in the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus:
- Paul - 17.3%
- Romney - 17.2%
- Gingrich - 16.7%
- Santorum - 13.3%
- Bachmann - 11.8%
- Perry - 10.5%
- Huntsman - 2.8%
The latest CNN/Time poll finds Romney leads among likely Republican Iowa Caucus participants:
- Romney - 25% +5
- Paul - 22% -5
- Santorum - 16% +11
- Gingrich - 14% -19
- Perry - 11% +2%
- Bachmann - 9% +2%
- Huntsman - 1% no change
The CNN poll was taken December 21-24 and December 26-27, 2011 and has a +/-4.5 percent margin of error.
Last week, Rasmussen reported similar findings:
- Romney - 25%
- Paul - 20%
- Gingrich - 17%
- Perry - 10%
- Santorum - 10%
- Bachmann - 6%
- Huntsman - 4%
The Rasmussen poll was conducted December 19, 2011 and has a +/- 4 percent margin of error.
Even though the he CNN/Time poll could be seen as confirmation of the Rasmussen poll, take it all with a large grain of salt. There are many reasons not to put too much stock in these results including:
- The CNN/Time poll found that 44% might change their mind before the January 3, 2012 caucuses.
- There is disagreement among the pollsters as to what impact Democrat and Independent voters might have in the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus. According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, the recent Public Policy Polling survey estimated that 24 percent of Iowa caucus participants are currently registered as independents or Democrats who will re-register as Republicans at the caucuses. The Washington Post/ABC News poll estimated it at 18% and the CNN poll assumes 0. At Unlikely Voter, my RedState colleague Neil Stevens says the PPP partisan alignment is all wrong. Niel argues for following the actual turnout for 2008 the Iowa caucuses, which included 86% self-identified Republicans, 13% self-identified Independents who presumably registered Republican to caucus, 1% Democrats, 1% “Other.”
The bottom line is that five days before the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses we do not know who will come out where.
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