CALIFORNIA YANKEE

This Week's Toast-O-Meter Is Up

Steven Taylor has posted The Toast-O-Meter (1/31/04 Edition), Steven's weekly assessment of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. As always it is entertaining and worth your time.

Required Reading

Stephen Green suggests that you should read this and that you will kick yourself if you don't. I couldn't agree more.

Creating A Hackable Election

Another report, this one for Maryland state legislators, makes it even more clear that we are on the verge of establishing a hackable election system. RABA Technologies conducted a mock election exercise and the results were anything but satisfactory.

The RABA team of eight experts was able to guess the hardcoded passwords to supervisor and voter smart cards. The RABA team was able to reset voter cards to allow multiple votes with the same card. All 32,000 statewide terminal locks are identical, and the team was able to pick one in less than 10 seconds. Picking the lock allowed physical access to the PCMCIA bay, which contains cards for the modem and the ballot definitions and results. These cards could be tampered with, destroyed or stolen. Attaching a keyboard to the terminals allowed resetting of all counters in the PCMCIA bay.

The server which accumulates tallies from local election boards also proved to be vulnerable. The server was missing over fifteen Microsoft security updates, and the team was able to use the flaws used by the "Blaster" worm. By using insecure USB ports or more secure CD drives, the team was able to modify results and databases “at will.”

You should read the report, it contains much greater detail about the flaws and recommended fixes.

The New York Times reports that "electronic voting machines from Diebold Inc. have computer security and physical security problems that might allow corrupt insiders or determined outsiders to disrupt or even steal an election."

According to the Times the report found these flaws:

Security experts found that the touch-screen voting machines all used the same key to two locks that protect them from tampering. With handheld computers and a little sleight of hand, they also found, the touch screens could be reprogrammed to make a vote for one candidate count for another, or results could be fouled so that a precinct's vote could not be used.

Communications between the terminals and the larger server computers that tabulate results from many precincts do not require that machines on either end of the line prove they are legitimate, which could let someone grab information that could be used to falsify whole precincts' worth of votes.

The group also found that the server computers did not have the latest protection against the security holes in the Microsoft operating systems, and were vulnerable to hacker attacks that would allow an outsider to change software.

The Washington Post reports that the study revealed these flaws:

Removable memory cards inside the machine can be tampered with if a lock is picked or if one of thousands of keys is stolen. If hackers find the phone number of the central computers used to compile vote totals, they could easily break into the system and tamper with results or introduce worms and viruses, said consultant Michael A. Wertheimer, a former National Security Agency analyst.

"You are more secure buying a book from Amazon than you are uploading your results to a Diebold server," said Wertheimer, recommending several changes to increase security.

The Times and Diebold focus on the point that if not hacked, the Diebold machines count votes correctly. Right, and if criminals stop breaking the law there would be no crime. The important point is that these machines are still vulnerable.

Diebold also emphasized the vulnerabilities could be addressed in a preliminary way in time for the state's primaries in March. According to the Times:

A spokesman for Diebold, which is based in North Canton, Ohio, emphasized the report's positive elements. "There is nothing that has not been, or can't be, mitigated" before the election, David Bear, the spokesman, said.

In a statement, Bob Urosevich, president of the Diebold election-systems unit, said that this report and another by the Science Applications International Corporation "confirm the accuracy and security of Maryland's voting procedures and our voting systems as they exist today."

Diebold just keeps on promising to fix these machines without getting it done. A report last July warned that these machines had flaws. The Times reports that the authors of the new study were surprised by extent the Diebold machines remain vulnerable:

The report's authors said they had expected a higher degree of security. "We were genuinely surprised at the basic level of the exploits" that allowed tampering, said Mr. Wertheimer, a former security expert for the National Security Agency.

The report supports the findings of a study released in July, by academic security experts at Johns Hopkins and Rice universities, that found Diebold software lacked the level of security needed to safeguard elections. Diebold stated that the code used by the researchers, which had been taken from a company Internet site and circulated online, was outdated. A subsequent report by Science Applications International found some similar problems.

Aviel D. Rubin, who led the Johns Hopkins effort, said, "If our report was unable to convince Maryland that the Diebold machines were vulnerable, then surely this work will set them straight."

The latest study found that some problems identified in the Hopkins study had not been corrected, and discussed other issues it found equally troubling.

It is simply unacceptable to implement a voting system that is vulnerable to manipulation. There must be absolute confidence in the results of elections as Bush v Gore made abundantly clear. These Diebold machines, and any other voting machines that are vulnerable manipulation, should not be allowed to be used in any elections until it is demonstrated that they are reliable and secure.

Maryland has spent more than $55 million for the Diebold machines. Georgia has chosen Diebold for elections statewide, and major counties in California, Ohio and Virginia have also chosen these machines.

The Washington Post reports that some Virginia counties had difficulties with the Diebold machines in November:

Problems have also surfaced in Virginia, where the machines were first used in several counties, including Fairfax, in November. On Election Day, many of the devices crashed in Fairfax, causing long lines. Some vote totals were not known until the next day because of glitches in the tallying software. State election officials conceded that the machines were certified without a comprehensive security or software review.

The Diebold electronic voting machines are not yet ready for prime time.

Defibrillator Sets Clothes On Fire

CNN is carrying an Associated Press, report about a patient's clothes being set on fire by a defibrillator. According to the report, the fire was started from by a spark from the defibrillator when a paramedic tried to restart her heart in an ambulance.

The patient was pronounced dead at the hospital.

Some doubt that the fire or the defibrillator caused the patient's death, explaining:

When you defibrillate a person, they are already dead.

New Hampshire Prediction Results

The New Hampshire primary results were:
Kerry 39%
Dean 26%
Clark 13%
Edwards 12%
Lieberman 9%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%

Over 50 bloggers predicted Kerry would win. Because so many decided to trust the polls, I declare the winners to be those four bloggers who correctly predicted the entire order of finish for all seven candidates. Unfortunately none of the eight bloggers who correctly predicted Kerry's Iowa win got the New Hampshireresults completely right. The six that used the crystal balls again this week all picked Kerry again. Is that skill, luck or stubbornness?

Drum roll. The best crystal balls, this week, were used by:
Matthew J. Stinson.
Jonathan David Morris, at Radical Cowboys.
DrMabuse, at Return of the Reluctant.
Scott Harris (who left only his name).
All four correctly predicted Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton. Well Done!

Kerry, Dean and Edwards
Twenty-four of us were tripped up when Clark managed to squeak by Edwards for third place:
Randy Balko, at The Agitator, one of last week's winners.
Jeff Quinton, at Backcountry Conservative
Professor Bainbridge.
McGehee, at blogoSPERICS.
Pat Curley, at Brainster's Blog.
Broken Masterpieces.
Me, right here at California Yankee.
Captain Ed, at Captain's Quarters.
Chris, at Chrisishardcore.com.
dailyKOS.
John J. Miller, at The Corner.
Election Projection.
Joshua Harris, at Independent Thinker,
Vincent Ferrari, at Insignificant Thoughts, one of last week's winners.
Kevin, at Lean Left.
Ryne McClaren.
Mike Courtney, at Mike (and family) .
Robert Garcia Tagorda, at Priorities & Frivolities.
Bob Hegney, at Radical Cowboys.
Shaun Dale, at Upper Left.
Kevin Aylward, at Wizbang, one of last week's winners.
Professor Tun-Ying, of The Yin Blog.

Kerry, Dean, Edwards Lieberman and Clark
Eleven predicted that both Edwards and Lieberman would beat Clark:
Betsy Newmark, at Betsy's Page.
Erick, at Confessions Of A Political Junkie.
Jonah Goldberg, at The Corner.
Dave Kopel, at The Corner.
Daniel Drezner, one of last week's winners.
Hei Lun, at Duck Season.
Robert, at GoDubya!, .
Kirk McPike, at MindtheGap.
Brian, at Tomfoolery.
Brandon, at Tweezle.com,
Eric, at Viking Pundit.

Kerry, Dean and Lieberman
Three saw Lieberman finishing third:
Owen, at Boots and Sabers.
Robert Holcomb, at Bush Blog.
Kathryn Jean Lopez, at The Corner.

Kerry, Edwards and Dean
Six predicted Edwards finishing second:
Carl, at Between the Coasts,.
Chip Griffin, at The Corner.
KJL, at The Corner. Is that two different predictions?
Discount Blogger.
Mark A. Kilmer's Political Annotation.
Oliver Willis.

Kerry and Clark
Three predicted Clark would finish second:
Nick, at Anti-Climacus, one of last week's winners.
Joe Carter, at the evangelical outpost.
Tintin (who left only a name).

Kerry and Lieberman
Myria, at It Can't Rain all The Time, paid too much attention to the signs.

Kerry
PontifexExMachina, one of last week's winners, stuck with Kerry.

Dean
Three predicted that Dean would prevail.
Hugh Hewitt .
Ipse Dixit.
Steven Taylor, at PoliBlog.

Clark
The Commissar, at The Politburo Diktat, saw Clark winning it.

An honorable, or equivocating, mention goes to Atrios, at Eschaton, for predicting Kerry or Dean and Clark or Edwards.

Seven Primaries Next week

On February 3, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina all
hold democratic primaries.

In those 7 states there are 269 delegates at stake, more than 12 percent of the 2,162 needed for nomination. There were 45 delegates at stake in the Iowa caucuses and only 22 in New Hampshire.

Next Tuesday will offer a number of firsts. It will be the first mult-state contest. Next Tuesday will include the first contest in the South, South Carolina. Arizona and New Mexico will be the first contests in the West.

According the Associated Press:

Democratic leaders hope to see a nominee emerge sometime over the next few weeks under this year's compressed primary schedule. Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe devised the front-loaded calendar to produce an early nominee.

Cross-posted at The Command Post.

Wow!

I had to attend a conference Monday which kept me away from an internet connection until late Monday evening. I fretted that the lack of posting would translate into fewer hits than is normal for California Yankee. Imagine my surprise when yesterday was California Yankee's biggest day.

Apparently I owe the traffic to a link from Hugh Hewitt. Thanks to Hugh and a belated welcome to his readers!

All the blogging time I have had in the last 36 hours have been devoted to the More New Hampshire Predictions post. Based on the traffic, it seems all the effort was worth it.

Airport Security Fails To Detect Stun Gun And Knife

CNN reports that a woman made it through airport security at New York's LaGuardia airport with stun gun and a knife in her purse.

After a layover in Detroit, on her way to Denver, she realized what she had in her purse and alerted a flight attendant. The plane was met at the gate by security personnel and the woman was taken into custody for questioning. She was released without charges.

Good thing the Woman wasn't an evil doer. Does anyone think anyone in the TSA will be disciplined for this breach? I'd like to think someone would be fired.

More New Hampshire Predictions

The blogosphere predictions for Tuesday's New Hampshire Primary are starting to be pulled from those crystal balls.

We will start with those bloggers who correctly predicted Kerry's Iowa victory:

Nick, at Anti-Climacus, reserving his right to change his mind predicts Kerry, Clark, Edwards, Dean, Lieberman and Kucinich.
PontifexExMachina is sticking with Kerry.

Now for the rest of the blogosphere that is apparently beyond embarrassment.
I am certain it will be Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark and Lieberman.
Captain Ed, at Captain's Quarters predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Clark.
KJL, at The Corner predicts an Iowa repeat Kerry, Edwards and Dean.
Professor Tun-Ying, of The Yin Blog predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman and Sharpton.
Discount Blogger predicts Kerry, Edwards and Dean.
The Commissar, at The Politburo Diktat, predicts Clark, Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Lieberman.

Two readers left predictions in comments.
Scott Harris Predicts Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Tintin predicts Kerry, Clark, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman and Kucinich.

UPDATE: Myria, at It Can't Rain all The Time, wasn't able to conduct another sign survey, but instead predicts Kerry, Lieberman, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Kucinich and Sharpton.

Via Michele, at The Command Post we learn of Chrisishardcore.com. Chris predicts Kerry,Dean, Edwards and Clark.
Kathryn Jean Lopez, at The Corner, predicts Kerry, Dean, Lieberman, Edwards and Clark.
Ryne McClaren also predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman.
Brian, at Tomfoolery, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman, Clark, Kucinich, Sharpton.
Eric, at Viking Pundit, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman and Clark.
Joe Carter, at the evangelical outpost, predicts Kerry, Clark, Edwards and Dean.

UPDATE II
Robert Holcomb, at Bush Blog, points out that eventual nominees have always placed first or second in New Hampshire. He predicts Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, Edwards and Clark.
Vincent Ferrari, at Insignificant Thoughts, predicts Kerry, Dean and Edwards.
Carl, at Between the Coasts, predicts Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Lieberman and Clark.
McGehee, at blogoSPERICS, predicts Kerry, Dean and Edwards.

UPDATE III
Hugh Hewitt predicts a Dean victory.
Randy Balko, at The Agitator, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark and Lieberman.
Daniel Drezner predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman and Clark.
Robert Garcia Tagorda, at Priorities & Frivolities, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark and Leiberman.
Professor Bainbridge predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark and Lieberman.
Ipse Dixit predicts Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Lieberman and Clark.
Steven Taylor, at PoliBlog, predicts dean, Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, Clark, Kucinich and Sharpton
Election Projection, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Erick, at Confessions Of A Political Junkie, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman and Clark.
Robert, at GoDubya!, predicts Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Liebermanand Clark.
Mark A. Kilmer's Political Annotation predicts Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Clark and Lieberman.
Broken Masterpieces predicts Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Clark and Lieberman.
dailyKOS predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark and Lieberman.
Joshua Harris, at Independent Thinker, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Hei Lun, at Duck Season, predicts Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman and Clark.
Owen, at Boots and Sabers, predicts Kerry, Dean, Lieberman, Edwards, Clark, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Kirk McPike, at MindtheGap, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards or Lieberman, Clark, Sharpton and Kucinich.
Oliver Willis predicts Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Atrios, atEschaton, predicts Kerry or Dean and Clark or Edwards.
Kevin, at Lean Left, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Clark.
DrMabuse, at Return of the Reluctant, predicts Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Kathryn Jean Lopez, at The Corner, predicts Kerry, Dean, Lieberman, Edwards and Clark.

UPDATE IV
Kevin Aylward, at Wizbang, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark and Lieberman.
Dave Kopel, at The Corner, predicts Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Liebermasn, Clark, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Jonah Goldberg, at The Corner, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Lieberman.
Chip Griffin, at The Corner, predicts Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Lieberman and Clark.
John J. Miller, at The Corner, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman and Kucinich.
Jonathan David Morris, at Radical Cowboys, predicts Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Bob Hegney, at Radical Cowboys, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Pat Curley, at Brainster's Blog, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Clark.
Matthew J. Stinson, predicts Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards and Lieberman.
Jeff Quinton, at Backcountry Conservative, predicts Kerry, Dean, and Edwards.
Brandon, at Tweezle.com, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman Clark and Kucinich.
Mike Courtney, at Mike (and family) , predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton.
Betsy Newmark, at Betsy's Page, predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman and Cark.
Via Dale Franks, at The Review, we learn that Mark Steyn predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman and Clark.

SPECIAL UPDATE:
Somehow I missed Shaun Dale's prediction at Upper Left. My apologies! Shaun predicts Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Clark.

Opportunity Lands Safely On Mars

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory broke into cheers again as Mars exploration rover Opportunity landed safely on Mars. The Los Angeles Times reports Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, on hand for the occasion, was presented with a broom to mark the clean sweep as he congratulated the controllers.

The first images from Opportunity were available just four hours after Opportunity's landing. The landscape at Opportunity's landing site was dark in color, much different from the Spirit landing site in Gusev Crater.

Click for larger image

Space.com reported that Steve Squyres, Principal Investigator for the Mars Exploration Rover effort from Cornell University was hard pressed to describe what he is seeing in the first set of images.

"It looks like nothing that I’ve ever seen in my life. Holly smokes. I’ve got nothing else to say. I just want to look. I’ve got no words for this."

As Opportunity reached Mars, troubleshooting teams continue to work around-the-clock to get the Spirit Mars Exploration Rover back on line. It developed an apparent computer glitch on Wednesday.

According to the LA Times, progress has been made in troubleshooting Spirit's problem.

Contact with Spirit was reestablished overnight Friday. Spirit unexpectedly sent back data indicating that the problem lies in the craft's flash memory. Controllers are confident that the problem could be either repaired or circumvented. It may be three weeks before Spirit is traveling again.