Liz Marlantes, writing in today's Christian Science Monitor, reports that this year the Iowa caucuses may not have the usual "winnowing" effect.
According to Marlantes, the Edwards and Kerry surge in the Iowa tracking polls portends a long and competitive primary battle. Marlantes reports that there is some evidence that the Edwards and Kerry surge in Iowa is impacting their fortunes in New Hampshire:
Already, the tightening of the race has energized the candidacies of both Senator Kerry of Massachusetts and Senator Edwards of North Carolina, to the point where even if they wind up finishing third and fourth they may be able to carry some momentum forward, at least into New Hampshire and the Feb. 3 states. Mr. Kerry's poll numbers in New Hampshire, where he had fallen into third place behind Mr. Dean and Gen. Wesley Clark, are beginning to rise, and he recently received the endorsements of two prominent newspapers in the state. Mr. Edwards's numbers are creeping up in New Hampshire as well - although he's looking more to South Carolina, where he could be a strong contender to win.
Marlantes also reports that the race again lacks a dominate issue:
After an interval of many months shaped by Dean's surge and the issue of Iraq war, the race now once again lacks a dominant issue or a dominant frontrunner.
Finally, Marlantes focuses on how uncommitted Iowans are:
Many Iowans say they are having had a harder time making up their minds than ever before - and won't decide until they actually walk into the caucus rooms."I've never seen it with this degree of intensity and volatility," says Dave Nagle, a former congressman and Iowa Democratic Party chairman, who has endorsed Dean.
[. . .]
Driven by a desire to get President Bush out of the White House, Democrats may be paying more attention than usual to a candidate's electability. In recent weeks that issue seems to have become more of a problem for Dean, fueled by relentless attacks from his rivals, as well as his own misstatements.
It may also help explain the shifts in momentum. At a Kerry rally in Des Moines, Lois Bullinga says that she began the year supporting Kerry - but then started looking at other candidates as the Massachusetts senator seemed to falter. But now that he's ahead in the polls, she's back with Kerry. "When he started coming on strong again, I got excited," she says. "We want to pick a winner."
If electability rather than Iraq becomes the dominate issue for the Democrats, Dean will certainly find obtaining the nomination more difficult, not that winning the nomination could ever be thought of as easy.
Comments