We have the first blogosphere prediction for the New Hampshire primary. It comes from the Commissar, at The Politburo Diktat.
Perhaps the Commissar felt left out, or maybe he didn't review these results, which show how many of us got Iowa wrong. In any event the Commissar predicts a Clark victory:
Clark 31%
Kerry 28%
Dean 16%
Edwards 14%
Lieberman 7%
Rest of them 4%
As I posted yesterday, now that I have identified over forty bloggers who made Iowa predictions, I will post New Hampshire predictions as well. I would appreciate your help in bringing predictions to my attention.
UPDATE: McGehee, at blogoSFERICS, also predicts a Clark victory:
Clark
Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Philip
Wesley Clark 13
Howard Dean 24
John Edwards 16
John Kerry 32.5
Joe Lieberman 10.5
Dennis Kucinich 2
Al Sharpton 1
Other 1
Total 100
Posted by: Philip Cleary | Tuesday, January 27, 2004 at 03:11 PM
Uh, can I change my prediction (comment #2 above)? Now I think it's:
Kerry (40%)
Dean (25%)
Edwards (15%)
Clark (14%)
Lieberman (6%)
Sharpton (0%)
Posted by: Tung Yin | Friday, January 23, 2004 at 01:51 PM
Kerry 32%
Clark 28%
Dean 20%
Edwards 14%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 1%
Posted by: tintin | Thursday, January 22, 2004 at 03:02 PM
Kerry 40%
Dean 22%
Clark 15%
Edwards 13%
Lieberman 8%
Kucinich 1.5%
Sharpton 0.5%
Posted by: Scott Harris | Thursday, January 22, 2004 at 11:27 AM
Given my relatively poor job of predicting the Iowa results despite living there, I'm loathe to get embarrassed again. I'll just bury my prediction in this comment thread:
1) Dean
2) Kerry
3) Edwards
4) Clark
5) Lieberman
6) Kucinich
7) Sharpton
Posted by: Tung Yin | Thursday, January 22, 2004 at 01:26 AM
If we're keeping track, that's a different matter. :)
Suffice to say that my numbers merely served to give some specificity to my prediction:
Clark first, Kerry close 2nd.
Dean & Edwards lagging, but respectable (>10%)
Lieberman and others out of it.
And all that "caps" the top guy in the low 30%s.
Posted by: The Commissarr | Wednesday, January 21, 2004 at 05:16 PM