Richardson Won't Be Kerry's Running Mate

The Associated Press reports that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has withdrawn from consideration as Kerry's running mate. Richardson's withdrawal came after a two-hour meeting with Kerry on Tuesday in Phoenix. According to the Associated Press, a person familiar with the process said Kerry was in Arizona to address a meeting of the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic civil rights group.

Richardson, 56, was a New Mexico congressman from 1982 to 1997. President Clinton appointed him U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in 1997, and a year later put him in charge of the Energy Department.

Richardson's withdrawal comes amid increased speculation about who Kerry will select as his running mate. Yesterday's Inside Politics column in the Washington Times contained this about Hillary Clinton getting the nod:

Veep Hillary?

"Official Washington and the entire press corps will be rocked when Hillary Rodham Clinton is picked as Kerry's VP and a massive love fest will begin," a "top Washington insider," tells the Drudge Report, on the condition that he not be named.

"All the signs point in her direction," the Drudge Report was told by the insider. "It is the solution to every Kerry problem."

In the Drudge Report story, the insider goes on to say: "The Democrats feel like health care is the domestic issue. But how to make it the dominant topic of conversation — break through war and terrorism? Hillary Clinton. She catapults it out front with her commission. She tried to provide health care before and the Republicans in Congress attacked her and her husband and used a bunch of scandals dirty tricks [sic] to stop it ...."

"The Democrats' economic plan is to say ... we must get back to the Clinton Era when 22 million jobs were created."

On top of all that, the insider tells Drudge, "Official Washington and national media will fall in love with the idea immediately letting Kerry/Clinton dominate the news through July and up to the Republican convention. She will say she is doing it for the good of the country. I am convinced this is going to happen."

He argues it is a win-win strategy for Mrs. Clinton because if Mr. Bush is re-elected, then she is the nominee for 2008 because Mr. Kerry will be blamed. And if the Kerry/Clinton ticket wins, Mrs. Clinton becomes the first female vice president of the United States, "which would help her become the first woman president."

Back in March Dick Morris predicted:

If Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) beats President Bush and Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) is not on the Democratic ticket as a vice presidential candidate, she will probably never be president of the United States.

[. . .]

If Kerry wins in 2004, he will very likely seek re-election. The last time a president served four years and didn’t try to succeed himself was back in 1880 and the president was Rutherford B. Hayes. So, unless Hillary wants to try to mount the first successful challenge to a presidential renomination since Gene McCarthy forced Lyndon Johnson into retirement in 1968, she will have to sit out the 2008 contest.

Should Kerry be re-elected, his vice president will probably be the Democratic candidate in 2012. All five times, since 1960, that a vice president sought the nomination for president after his party controlled the White House for at least two terms he has gotten it (Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Gerald Ford in 1976, George H.W. Bush in 1980, Al Gore in 2000). That means that Hillary would be out in the cold until at least 2016 and, if the Democrat won and was re-elected, until 2020. She’ll be 73 by then.

Even if Kerry is elected and loses a bid for a second term, his vice president would still be the favorite in 2012. Twice, since 1960, a man who served as vice president has come back in a subsequent year to win his party’s nomination — Nixon in 1968 and Walter Mondale in 1984. Humphrey failed to get the nod in 1972, but he had already run and lost four years before. Dan Quayle failed also, but he was, well, Quayle.

[. . .]

So what should she do? If Kerry is anywhere close to Bush at convention time, she’d better go for the second spot. A close defeat wouldn’t hurt her and, if Kerry wins, it will be her only way to become the second President Clinton.

[. . .]

Kerry needs Hillary on the ticket. A vice presidential candidacy by her would turn his campaign into a crusade and would energize her supporters to a fever pitch. It would summon all the good memories of the Clinton prosperity without the bad reminders of Monica et al. But, most of all, Kerry cannot afford to leave the Clintons sulking, like Achilles, in their tent. Otherwise, Troy will go Republican.

I like Morris's analysis, but there is a significant number of people who would be energized against Hillary Clinton as Kerry's running mate.

The smart money is on Edwards. A recent USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows John Edwards is the vice presidential prospect preferred by Democrats, but Dick Gephardt and Wesley Clark are also popular. An Associated Press/ Ipsos-Public Affairs Poll found that a majority of registered voters want Kerry to pick Edwards.

We may not be held in suspense much longer. The Boston Globe reports that Kerry may announce who is running mate is as early as Tuesday.