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Saturday, August 28, 2004


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Mark Madsen

Actually, I'm probably wrong about Nader's eventual status on the CT ballot. He'll likely make it unless too many of the 12,000 signatures submitted turn out to be invalid. So I take back my comment from yesterday.

Nader's looking bleak overall, though. Currently he's certified on the ballot in states which account only for 5.83% of the voting population and 37 electoral votes. He's absolutely NOT on the ballot in states which account for 48.25% of the voting pop and 239 electoral votes, leaving the necessity of securing ballot victories in nearly ALL of his remaining "TBD" states to have even a _theoretical_ chance of victory.

My mind boggles at why you'd keep running under such circumstances.

Mark Madsen

Given that Nader's not on the ballot in CT (according to CT Elections Division as of last Thursday), the more interesting question will be how the six percent that are polling Nader will break -- equally to both candidates, or will the folks who prefer Nader break to Kerry when their candidate doesn't appear on the Nov. ballot? Nationally speaking, it's likelier the latter than the former, which means that despite polls, Kerry retains a substantial electoral lead in CT, even if polls are narrower.

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