CALIFORNIA YANKEE

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-31

Reuters reports today's results of Zogby's polling in 10 battleground states. This tracking polling which began on Sunday will run each day through November 1:

Kerry leads in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Bush leads in Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, according to the Reuters/Zogby state polls.

The state of New Mexico is deadlocked at 49 percent each, one day after Bush held a nine-point advantage.

Colorado
October 31, Bush 48% - Kerry 47%
October 30, Bush 50% - Kerry 45%
October 29, Bush 47% - Kerry 46%
October 28, Bush 47% - Kerry 48%
October 27, Bush 46% - Kerry 50%
October 26, Bush 47% - Kerry 49%
October 25, Bush 47% - Kerry 48%
October 24, Bush 45% - Kerry 49%

Florida
October 31, Bush 47% - Kerry 48%
October 30, Bush 47% - Kerry 49%
October 29, Bush 45% - Kerry 47%
October 28, Bush 48% - Kerry 47%
October 27, Bush 48% - Kerry 46%
October 26, Bush 49% - Kerry 45%
October 25, Bush 48% - Kerry 47%
October 24, Bush 49% - Kerry 46%

Iowa
October 31, Bush 44% - Kerry 50%
October 30, Bush 46% - Kerry 47%
October 29, Bush 45% - Kerry 44%
October 28, Bush 44% - Kerry 45%
October 27, Bush 45% - Kerry 45%
October 26, Bush 45% - Kerry 45%
October 25, Bush 47% - Kerry 44%
October 24, Bush 47% - Kerry 45%

Michigan
October 31, Bush 45% - Kerry 52%
October 30, Bush 47% - Kerry 48%
October 29, Bush 48% - Kerry 46%
October 28, Bush 47% - Kerry 45%
October 27, Bush 47% - Kerry 47%
October 26, Bush 44% - Kerry 49%
October 25, Bush 43% - Kerry 52%
October 24, Bush 42% - Kerry 52%

Minnesota
October 31, Bush 47% - Kerry 49%
October 30, Bush 46% - Kerry 49%
October 29, Bush 43% - Kerry 49%
October 28, Bush 46% - Kerry 45%
October 27, Bush 44% - Kerry 47%
October 26, Bush 44% - Kerry 46%
October 25, Bush 43% - Kerry 48%
October 24, Bush 45% - Kerry 46%

New Mexico
October 30, Bush 49% - Kerry 49%
October 29, Bush 51% - Kerry 42%
October 28, Bush 49% - Kerry 43%
October 27, Bush 47% - Kerry 44%
October 26, Bush 48% - Kerry 43%
October 25, Bush 50% - Kerry 42%
October 24, Bush 49% - Kerry 44%

Nevada
October 31, Bush 50% - Kerry 44%
October 30, Bush 50% - Kerry 46%
October 29, Bush 51% - Kerry 44%
October 28, Bush 50% - Kerry 45%
October 27, Bush 51% - Kerry 44%
October 26, Bush 49% - Kerry 46%
October 25, Bush 50% - Kerry 44%
October 24, Bush 48% - Kerry 44%

Ohio
October 31, Bush 48% - Kerry 44%
October 30, Bush 49% - Kerry 44%
October 29, Bush 46% - Kerry 45%
October 28, Bush 44% - Kerry 47%
October 27, Bush 45% - Kerry 46%
October 26, Bush 46% - Kerry 44%
October 25, Bush 46% - Kerry 45%
October 24, Bush 47% - Kerry 42%

Pennsylvania
October 31, Bush 45% - Kerry 50%
October 30, Bush 46% - Kerry 49%
October 29, Bush 44% - Kerry 47%
October 28, Bush 47% - Kerry 47%
October 27, Bush 46% - Kerry 49%
October 26, Bush 45% - Kerry 49%
October 25, Bush 45% - Kerry 48%
October 24, Bush 45% - Kerry 47%

Wisconsin
October 31, Bush 44% - Kerry 51%
October 30, Bush 44% - Kerry 52%
October 29, Bush 45% - Kerry 50%
October 28, Bush 46% - Kerry 49%
October 27, Bush 46% - Kerry 50%
October 26, Bush 46% - Kerry 48%
October 25, Bush 48% - Kerry 46%
October 24, Bush 48% - Kerry 45%

The polls were conducted October 28-30 of 600 likely voters in each state and have a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points in each state.

Bad Omen For President Bush - Redskins Lost

The Washington Redskins lost at home today, 28-14 to Green Bay.

According to Reuters:

In every presidential election since 1936, the Redskins' last home game has accurately predicted the winner. If they win, the incumbent president's party wins. If they lose, the challenger wins.

As a Cowboys fan I never cared much for the Redskins. Right now I like them even less.

Nader Could Still Impact Key States

The Los Angeles Times reports that even though Nader is only on the ballot in 34 states, he may have an impact because some of those states are still competitive.

According to the Times, the thirteen potentially competitive states in which Nader might impact the outcome include Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Tracking Polling Update - 10-31

All three show the same result.

Reuters/Zogby International Tracking Poll
Bush 48%
Kerry 48%
The poll was conducted October 28-30 and has an margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll
Bush 48%
Kerry 48%
The poll was conducted October 27-30.
and has an margin of error of 2.5 points. The Washington Post and ABC collect their data jointly, though they use separate methods to identify likely voters.

Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll
Bush 48.1%
Kerry 47.9%
The poll was conducted October 27-29 and has a margin of error is plus or minus 2 percent.

Do you think it's close?

Hawaii Gets Campaign Attention

Reuters reports that Vice President Dick Cheney, former Vice President Al Gore, and Kerry's daughter Alexandra Kerry are all campaigning in Hawaii. They are in Hawaii because recent polls show that President Bush could win the traditionally Democratic stronghold:

A poll by The Honolulu Advertiser, the state's largest newspaper, found Bush and Kerry even among likely voters with about 12 percent of voters undecided. A poll by the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and local TV station KITV found Bush leading by one percentage point.

The campaign is so close Hawaii's 4 electoral votes could be critical.

Kerry Campaign Threatens Fox News

It was puzzling yesterday when there were no follow-up articles about the blowup between the Kerry campaign and Fox News concerning the new bin Laden Video tape.

Saturday morning ABCNews' "Noted Now" briefly posted this:

KERRY CAMPAIGN BLOWS UP AT FOX, THREATENS TO THROW FOX OFF THE PLANE, BACKS OFF

KERRY CAMP OBJECTS TO 4:00pm FOX NEWS SEGMENT:
ALAN COLMES: "It's not like he [Osama bin Laden] had a Kerry-Edward bumper sticker in his cave." NEIL CAVUTO: "But he's all but doing that, isn't he? I thought I saw a button."

KERRY CAMP ASKS FOR RETRACTION, DOES NOT GET ONE… JOHN SASSO BLOWS UP AT FOX PRODUCER ON PLANE: "Is that the one? Is that her? I want her off the plane tomorrow. I'm not kidding."

COMM. DIR. STEPHANIE CUTTER BACKTRACKS: "He [Sasso] was wrong to say that. We jumped all over him for it."

After unsuccessfully searching for details in other stories I again checked "Noted Now" and the above exchange had vanished. That isn't all that unusual as "Noted Now" is constantly updated. What is unusual is that there were no articles to be found about the blowup over the "button" comment.

California Yankee and Power Line posted the exchange that had appeared on "Noted Now."

This morning it all starts to make sense. The Boston Globe has a puff piece by Patrick Healy about the blowup over the "button" comment. The Globe's article casts the blowup in a very favorable light for the Kerry campaign, deftly minimizing the possible downside for the Kerry campaign.

If there had been a similar exchange between the Bush campaign and a major news organization, negative articles would have been in all the major papers. Those stories would go on about bush campaign advisors lashing out because they were losing confidence. . . .

The Kerry endorsing Globe story manages to cover all the facts that were briefly leaked by "Noted Now" and makes Fox News the villain.

The spin starts in the first sentence by focusing on "when Fox initially refused to apologize:"

John Sasso, a senior adviser to John F. Kerry's presidential campaign, threatened to ban Fox News staff from the candidate's plane Friday night when Fox initially refused to apologize for a talk show host's comment that a new videotape showed Osama bin Laden with a Kerry button.

The "initially refused to apologize" phrase is very crafty. Fox still hasn't apologized, but the sentence implies that there was one.

The next paragraghs make the "Kerry advisers" appear to be the cool headed grownups calmly diffusing an potential dispute instead of what it really was, Kerry lieutenants lashing out and their pre-election confidence vanishing because of the new bin Laden video:"

John Sasso, a senior adviser to John F. Kerry's presidential campaign, threatened to ban Fox News staff from the candidate's plane Friday night when Fox initially refused to apologize for a talk show host's comment that a new videotape showed Osama bin Laden with a Kerry button.

Kerry advisers quickly backtracked, however, concluding that an escalating conflict with a major cable channel just days before the election would do nothing to help the Democratic nominee.

"Quickly backtracked?" That depends on the meaning of "quickly." The Globe doesn't reveal exactly how long it took for the Kerry advisors to backtrack but a later paragraph implies it was after the flight was over:

The producer spent the rest of the flight talking to Fox executives by phone. Cutter said afterward that Fox would not be removed from the plane, and that Sasso had erred in making his remark, given the Fox producer's reputation as a widely respected professional.

Finally, more than half way through the article the actual "button" comment is addressed:

After the videotape of bin Laden was widely broadcast Friday afternoon, a Republican guest on Cavuto's show said the Al Qaeda leader's criticisms of President Bush amounted to ''an endorsement" of Kerry. A second guest objected, saying, ''I don't think he's going to have a Kerry-Edwards sticker in the cave."

Chimed in Cavuto: ''He's all but doing that. I thought I saw a button."

It's interesting that the article blames an unnamed "Republican guest" for starting the exchange. The article fails to note that unnamed the "second guest was" Alan Colmes, America’s most prominent broadcast liberal. The Globe also quotes Colmes differently than "Noted Now" did:

ALAN COLMES: "It's not like he [Osama bin Laden] had a Kerry-Edward bumper sticker in his cave."

Then we have the non-ultimatum. The Globe reports that an infuriated Campaign spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter "told Fox News executives they had three hours to issue a retraction and an apology; she did not deliver an ultimatum, she told the Globe, but simply stated that an admission of fault was expected."

Right! Giving Fox three hours to issue a retraction and an apology is not an ultimatum.

Read the whole article and see how the main stream media supports the Kerry campaign by controlling what we get to read or see about the campaign. I wonder how much pressure was exerted to have Noted Now pull the exchange about the "button" comment blowup and to keep the story out of the media until it appeared in the blogosphere and The Globe could spin it to the Kerry Campaign's liking.

Zogby's Ten Battleground States Update 10-30

Reuters reports today's results of Zogby's polling in 10 battleground states. This tracking polling which began on Sunday will run each day through November 1:

Kerry reclaimed small leads in Michigan and Iowa, and also led Bush in Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Bush had the edge in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and expanded his lead in the showdown state of Ohio from one to five points.

Colorado
October 30, Bush 50% - Kerry 45%
October 29, Bush 47% - Kerry 46%
October 28, Bush 47% - Kerry 48%
October 27, Bush 46% - Kerry 50%
October 26, Bush 47% - Kerry 49%
October 25, Bush 47% - Kerry 48%
October 24, Bush 45% - Kerry 49%

Florida
October 30, Bush 47% - Kerry 49%
October 29, Bush 45% - Kerry 47%
October 28, Bush 48% - Kerry 47%
October 27, Bush 48% - Kerry 46%
October 26, Bush 49% - Kerry 45%
October 25, Bush 48% - Kerry 47%
October 24, Bush 49% - Kerry 46%

Iowa
October 30, Bush 46% - Kerry 47%
October 29, Bush 45% - Kerry 44%
October 28, Bush 44% - Kerry 45%
October 27, Bush 45% - Kerry 45%
October 26, Bush 45% - Kerry 45%
October 25, Bush 47% - Kerry 44%
October 24, Bush 47% - Kerry 45%

Michigan
October 30, Bush 47% - Kerry 48%
October 29, Bush 48% - Kerry 46%
October 28, Bush 47% - Kerry 45%
October 27, Bush 47% - Kerry 47%
October 26, Bush 44% - Kerry 49%
October 25, Bush 43% - Kerry 52%
October 24, Bush 42% - Kerry 52%

Minnesota
October 30, Bush 46% - Kerry 49%
October 29, Bush 43% - Kerry 49%
October 28, Bush 46% - Kerry 45%
October 27, Bush 44% - Kerry 47%
October 26, Bush 44% - Kerry 46%
October 25, Bush 43% - Kerry 48%
October 24, Bush 45% - Kerry 46%

New Mexico
October 30, Bush 52% - Kerry 43%
October 29, Bush 51% - Kerry 42%
October 28, Bush 49% - Kerry 43%
October 27, Bush 47% - Kerry 44%
October 26, Bush 48% - Kerry 43%
October 25, Bush 50% - Kerry 42%
October 24, Bush 49% - Kerry 44%

Nevada
October 30, Bush 50% - Kerry 46%
October 29, Bush 51% - Kerry 44%
October 28, Bush 50% - Kerry 45%
October 27, Bush 51% - Kerry 44%
October 26, Bush 49% - Kerry 46%
October 25, Bush 50% - Kerry 44%
October 24, Bush 48% - Kerry 44%

Ohio
October 30, Bush 49% - Kerry 44%
October 29, Bush 46% - Kerry 45%
October 28, Bush 44% - Kerry 47%
October 27, Bush 45% - Kerry 46%
October 26, Bush 46% - Kerry 44%
October 25, Bush 46% - Kerry 45%
October 24, Bush 47% - Kerry 42%

Pennsylvania
October 30, Bush 46% - Kerry 49%
October 29, Bush 44% - Kerry 47%
October 28, Bush 47% - Kerry 47%
October 27, Bush 46% - Kerry 49%
October 26, Bush 45% - Kerry 49%
October 25, Bush 45% - Kerry 48%
October 24, Bush 45% - Kerry 47%

Wisconsin
October 30, Bush 44% - Kerry 52%
October 29, Bush 45% - Kerry 50%
October 28, Bush 46% - Kerry 49%
October 27, Bush 46% - Kerry 50%
October 26, Bush 46% - Kerry 48%
October 25, Bush 48% - Kerry 46%
October 24, Bush 48% - Kerry 45%

The polls were conducted October 27-29 of 600 likely voters in each state and have a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points in each state.

Pollster John Zogby Predicts Kerry Will Win

Pollster John Zogby tells the New York Daily News' Sidney Zion that Kerry will win:

Pollster John Zogby, in a telephone interview with me yesterday, predicted that John Kerry will win the election. "It's close," he said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry."
When Zogby talks, politicians listen. He made his bones in the Bill Clinton-Bob Dole election of 1996, when he came within one-tenth of a percentage point of the final tally.

So what was Robert Novak talking about in Thursday's Chicago Sun-Times? In his "Kerry unable to crack Bush base" column, Novak wrote:

On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.

According to Novak, this five month long presidential campaign comes down to who the ''security mom'' thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Every poll I've seen, and it seems like that's a lot of polls, voters trust Bush more than Kerry to handle the challenges of terrorism and homeland security. So why is the outcome of the election in doubt?

Zion explains that Novak got it wrong:

Here's what he[Zogby] told me: "I said Bush was winning, I didn't say I thought he'd win. On Monday, he was indeed looking good. But on Tuesday, things changed. Kerry, in that one day, picked up 5 points."

Novak might have misunderstood Zogby, but Novak gets it right about security moms. The security moms and the rest of us who trust President Bush more than Kerry on the war against terrorism and homeland security.

Now with the new bin Laden video reminding everyone that yes there is a threat of another terror attack, I wonder how confident Zogby is in his prediction.

Kerry Campaign Upset About Reaction To Bin Laden Tape

This morning ABCNews' "Noted Now" gave us an idea just how worried the Kerry Campaign is about the reaction to the new bin Laden video tape:

KERRY CAMPAIGN BLOWS UP AT FOX, THREATENS TO THROW FOX OFF THE PLANE, BACKS OFF

KERRY CAMP OBJECTS TO 4:00pm FOX NEWS SEGMENT:
ALAN COLMES: "It's not like he [Osama bin Laden] had a Kerry-Edward bumper sticker in his cave." NEIL CAVUTO: "But he's all but doing that, isn't he? I thought I saw a button."

KERRY CAMP ASKS FOR RETRACTION, DOES NOT GET ONE… JOHN SASSO BLOWS UP AT FOX PRODUCER ON PLANE: "Is that the one? Is that her? I want her off the plane tomorrow. I'm not kidding."

COMM. DIR. STEPHANIE CUTTER BACKTRACKS: "He [Sasso] was wrong to say that. We jumped all over him for it."

It's no longer up at "Noted Now," which is constantly updated. I spent most of my blogging time today trying to find other reports about the Kerry campaign's blowup, unfortunately without success.

Sullivan Gaining On Congressman Simmons In 2nd District

The Associated Press reports that a new UConn poll finds Democratic challenger Sullivan is gaining on Republican Congressman Simmons in Connecticut's 2nd Congressional District.

Registered Voters
Simmons 44%
Sullivan 42%

The poll was conducted October 27-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

A UConn poll two weeks ago, found Simmons enjoyed a 9 point lead, 44% to 36%.

One week ago a Research 2000 poll found Simmons leading challenger Sullivan by 2, 48% to 46%.

UConn Pollster Ken Dautrich, said Simmons' lead has diminished for two reasons. Undecided voters typically support the challenger over the incumbent, and negative television ads against Sullivan may have created a backlash.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been active in the 2nd District, where, according to the Associated Press, Connecticut leans Democratic and favors Kerry over Bush by as much as 19 percent:

The national party has poured $1.25 million into that race, which has also attracted intense activity by labor union volunteers and campaign visits by such political heavyweights as Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass.

Sullivan has also received more than $80,000 from the extremist anti-Bush group MoveOn.org.