Pollster John Zogby tells the New York Daily News' Sidney Zion that Kerry will win:
Pollster John Zogby, in a telephone interview with me yesterday, predicted that John Kerry will win the election. "It's close," he said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry."
When Zogby talks, politicians listen. He made his bones in the Bill Clinton-Bob Dole election of 1996, when he came within one-tenth of a percentage point of the final tally.
So what was Robert Novak talking about in Thursday's Chicago Sun-Times? In his "Kerry unable to crack Bush base" column, Novak wrote:
On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
According to Novak, this five month long presidential campaign comes down to who the ''security mom'' thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Every poll I've seen, and it seems like that's a lot of polls, voters trust Bush more than Kerry to handle the challenges of terrorism and homeland security. So why is the outcome of the election in doubt?
Zion explains that Novak got it wrong:
Here's what he[Zogby] told me: "I said Bush was winning, I didn't say I thought he'd win. On Monday, he was indeed looking good. But on Tuesday, things changed. Kerry, in that one day, picked up 5 points."
Novak might have misunderstood Zogby, but Novak gets it right about security moms. The security moms and the rest of us who trust President Bush more than Kerry on the war against terrorism and homeland security.
Now with the new bin Laden video reminding everyone that yes there is a threat of another terror attack, I wonder how confident Zogby is in his prediction.
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