CALIFORNIA YANKEE

Pakistan Withdraws Troops From Border Region

Fox News reports that Pakistan is withdrawing troops from the area where bin Laden is believed to be hiding:

The withdrawals from the region near the Afghanistan border follow intense military operations by thousands of troops against remnants of bin Laden's Al Qaeda organization and its allies.

The top Pakistan general in the region says the army is removing checkpoints in return for local tribesmen's support against foreign militants. He adds that some Pakistani soldiers will remain nearby.

This isn't surprising considering the military chief of northwest Pakistan says Osama bin Laden can not be hiding in Pakistan's tribal lands on the Afghan border.

It's a mistake for the Pakistanis to think the tribesmen will them over al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda is more likely to make the tribesmen one of those offers that one can't refuse.

President Bush Targeted For Assassination

Reuters reports that President Bush was targeted for assassination by Colombian rebels when he visited Cartagena last week:

"According to informants and various sources, we had information indicating that various members of the FARC had been instructed by their leaders to make an attempt against President Bush," Defense Secretary Jorge Alberto Uribe told reporters.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), has been fighting a guerrilla war against the Columbian government for 40-years.

Columbia tightened security significantly for President Bush's visit. About 15,000 Colombian security forces backed by warplanes, helicopters, battleships and two submarines were used safeguard President Bush during his four-hour visit.

According to the Associated Press there was no evidence that rebels tried to organize an attack against President Bush.

9/11 And Madrid Train Bombings Linked

Reuters reports that the FBI has established the clearest link yet between the March 11 Madrid train bombings and the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States:

The FBI has told Spanish investigators that one of three men believed to have planned the Sept. 11 attacks from Spain in the summer of 2001 also gave the order to carry out the Madrid blasts, the newspaper ABC reported.

[. . .]

Investigators have long concluded that the Sept. 11 attacks were partially planned in Spain in July 2001.

Hijacker Mohammed Atta, believed to have piloted one of the airliners that crashed into New York's World Trade Center, visited Spain two months before the attacks and met two men.

One was Ramzi bin al-Shaibah, who is being held by U.S. authorities, while the other was unidentified.

ABC said investigators now believe that third man was the one who in December 2003 activated the Qaeda cell that carried out the March 11 attacks, which Spaniards call "our Sept. 11."

Russian Street Reaction To Ukraine's Election Chaos

Considerettes asked its correspondent in Russia what the "Muscovite street" thought about the Ukrainian election situation. I found the response disappointing:

The Russian people despise these protests currently taking place in the cities of Ukraine. As always, Russians fear the West encroaching on their borders. If Ukraine had a Western loving president that would be a real threat to Russia. Xenophobia is not cured in one (nor two) generations. There are 1000 years of fear, loathing, and sometimes both for the West. The fact that we're on the same side now won't be discovered at any level of depth anytime soon. Also keep in mind the recent pro-Western president elected in Georgia. That did not go down too well in Russia. The West is fine as long as they stay in the west!

Read the whole thing.

Iraq Part Of America's Secret War

The Australian reports that in his new book "America's Secret War" George Friedman contends that although the US believed Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, the WMDs were ultimately "a cover for a much deeper game."

According to The Australian, after the Soviet Union retreated from Afghanistan al-Qaeda pressed its grand design for an Islamist world federation, a new Caliphate, which would ultimately match, if not dominate, other superpowers. Global terrorism would be the means. Al-Qa'ida's opening moves - attacks on American embassies and other establishments abroad - were aimed, in Friedman's opinion, less at damaging the US than provoking it to a reckless assault on Islam:

This, al-Qa'ida believed, would stir the "Islamic street" to a confrontational mood with the West and rebellion against non-fundamentalist Islamic regimes, establishing the foundations of the great federation. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, the US, confident of its hegemony, had concluded that "war was now optional", that no power existed that could force it into war.

The passive US response to its early pinprick attacks emboldened and frustrated al-Qa'ida. The jihadists, Friedman writes, "needed to strike a blow that would be devastating, [breaching] the threshold between what was tolerable and intolerable for the US". Their initiative was the September11, 2001, attack on New York and Washington, which shocked and disoriented the Americans. Their first reaction was to speculate almost in panic about a September 11 with nuclear weapons.

[. . .]

The invasion and speedy subjugation of Afghanistan staggered the jihadists. But the US, having succeeded only in dispersing al-Qa'ida and the Taliban, rather than eliminating them, believed it needed to strike another heavy blow.

By then it had identified the jihadist campaign as "a Saudi problem". Most of the September 11 suicide attackers had been Saudis. Bin Laden was a Saudi. Saudi money trails were everywhere. An invasion of Saudi Arabia presented the tactical problem of waging war against a country of vast area and the strategic one of disrupting the world's oil supplies.

The Americans had established and then strengthened a military presence in countries surrounding Saudi Arabia - Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Invasion of Iraq would complete the encirclement.

"From a purely military view," Friedman adds, "Iraq is the most strategic single country in the Middle East, [bordering] six other countries: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and ."

So the US struck, with consequences unfolding nightly on our TV screens. Friedman believes the US-jihadist war hangs in the balance. However, the measured actions of the US during the past three years, including its strong military presence in the Middle East, have caused significant moderation of the position on global jihad of Saudi Arabia and other Muslim regimes.

The strategy of the jihadists has stalled: "Not a single regime has fallen to
al-Qa'ida ... There is no rising in the Islamic street. [There has been] complete failure of al-Qa'ida to generate the political response they were seeking ... At this point the US is winning ... The war goes on."

Last Sunday I watched CSPAN 2's "Book TV" broadcast about George Friedman's newest book, "America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between the United States and its Enemies."

Friedman's explanation of why we invaded Iraq is simply fascinating:

We went into Iraq to isolate and frighten the Saudi government into cracking down on the flow of money to Al Qaeda. Bush never answered the question for fear of the international consequences. Early in the war, the President said that the key was shutting down Al Qaeda's financing. Most of the financing came from Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi government was refusing to cooperate. After the invasion of Iraq, they completely changed their position. We did not invade Saudi Arabia directly because of fear that the fall of the Saudi government would disrupt oil supplies: a global disaster. [From this interview with George Friedman.]

His thoughts about and Pakistan are provocative:

“[The United States] will play defense against Al Qaeda in the United States and Saudi Arabia. It will threaten with war if aids Al Qaeda. Most importantly, the United States will have to invade northwestern Pakistan. There are plans for this already. In addition, if Pakistan collapses due to an invasion, the United States and India will have to jointly occupy Pakistan. The end game is Pakistan.”
-from this press release.]

Freidman's statements about reports that al-Qaeda had gotten hold of a nuclear weapon are terrifying. Finally the book's prognosis is encouraging:

The United States is winning the war. Al Qaeda has failed to achieve any of its strategic goals. There has been no uprising in the Islamic world, no regimes toppled. In fact, most Islamic governments have increased their cooperation with the United States. Al Qaeda has been backed against a wall. The game is far from over, but the U.S. certainly has the lead -- in spite of an extraordinary array of blunders, some inexplicable. [From Chapter Summaries - Conclusion.]

George Friedman is also the author of "The Intelligence Edge" and "The Future of War." Mr. Friedman previously worked as the director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies at Louisiana State University. He currently serves as chairman of Stratfor, an international private intelligence firm.

I agree with Professor Bainbridge that Freidman's book sounds like a stimulating must read.

UPDATE: Bill Hobbs is ahead of all us having already started reading Freidman's book. Bill says the book is excellent.

In October, Chuck's Daily Blog posted that Freidman said, America’s invasion of Iraq put pressure on the Saudis that forced them to act against al-Qaeda sympathizers within Saudi Arabia in ways the Saudis had been unwilling to do:

In the past year, Friedman argues, it has worked. The Saudis, shaken by America’s action, has engaged in a “civil war’’ against al-Qaeda, killing operatives, busting up cells and cracking down on the group’s financial network.

Ghost of a Flea posts it was obvious that the U.S. strategy in the war on terrorism was well thought out and hopes his confidence is not misplaced.

At Vox Baby, Andrew Samwick agrees that reform in Saudi Arabia is critical to peace in the Middle East, but posts that our next step should have been something to tip the balance in favor of democracy and nuclear disarmament in .

EagleSpeak also argues that the purpose of invading Iraq was to complete the encirclement of .

The Owner's Manual is also skeptical of Freidman's premise posting remaining steadfast in the task of cramming democracy down on people who increasingly resist it at the cost of a thousand of our finest countrymen is difficult enough without asserting that it is all about containing an erstwhile ally.

UPDATE II: At Power Line, deacon commenting on Freidman's book, posts that our greatest victories so far have been in convincing Pakistan to aid our effort in Afghanistan and then ousting the Taliban without causing an uprising against the Pakistani government and the crackdown against al-Qaeda, that organization's attacks against Saudi Arabia, the Saudis' response, and the lack of any resulting uprising against Saudi Arabia.

Theft Disrupts 911 Service

The Journal News reports that theft of equipment from a Verizon center in White Plains, New York disrupted 911 service in some Westchester County communities:

Two men yesterday were accused of breaking into a Verizon center in White Plains and stealing equipment, triggering a disruption in 911 service in Greenburgh and other Westchester County communities as far north as Peekskill.

The men had been taken into custody by White Plains police about 10 p.m. Wednesday in the Verizon building, which also serves Lightpath, Cablevision and other electronic-service providers. Early yesterday, work crews from both telephone companies were working to assess the damage and restore full service. No Verizon customers were affected.

A security officer noticed two men leaving the building with two TV size boxes containing an estimated million dollars worth of circuit boards.

According to the Journal News, the two suspects were charged with grand larceny, burglary, computer tampering, criminal mischief, criminal tampering and conspiracy, all felonies, and possession of a forged instrument, a misdemeanor.

Broadcast reports on local news shows say that the FBI and Homeland Security are investigating this incident.

Bin Laden Not Hiding Near Pakistan Border?

Reuters reports that the military chief of northwest Pakistan, who is also in charge of clearing out al-Qaeda militants, says Osama bin Laden can not be hiding in Pakistan's tribal lands on the Afghan border:

Bin Laden and his bodyguards could not go undetected in the rugged tribal lands, although pockets of al Qaeda-backed fighters are battling Pakistani forces there, said Lieutenant-General Safdar Hussain.

"He requires his own protection and the kind of security apparatus he is supposed to have around would give us a very big signature," Hussain told Reuters in an interview in his well-fortified headquarters in the northwest city of Peshawar.

"There is not an inch of South Waziristan agency or the tribal area which we have not swept time and again and if he was here, I assure you he could not have escaped my ears and eyes."

I remain confident that Bin Laden will be brought to justice. I just wish it would happen a whole lot sooner, rather than later.

Petition Demands Recognition Of Europe's Christian Heritage

The Telegraph reports that more than a million Europeans have signed a petition to European Union leaders calling for changes to the constitution recognizing Europe's Christian heritage:

Refusing to accept a secular "fait accompli" from Brussels, a Christian coalition is demanding that each EU state publish its version of the constitution's preamble, with references to God if desired.

Already armed with 1,149,000 signatures and with thousands more pouring in from Holland since the murder of the film-maker Theo van Gogh, the group claims that most states want some reference to Christianity but were blocked by France.

The move is keenly backed by Pope John Paul II, who has repeatedly condemned the "moral drift" of Brussels. "One does not cut the roots to one's birthright," he told pilgrims this summer.

Euro-MPs voted this week to back the calls for a change in the text. Petitioners, led by Italy's International Mission Centre, will now take their case to EU governments. The current version of the preamble eschews Christianity, talking vaguely of "the cultural, religious and humanist inheritance of Europe".

According to the Telegraph, Former French president Valery Giscard d'Estaing, deliberately left the issue open when he wrote the document, inviting a petition:

"I have chosen not to insert the reference to the Christian heritage in the constitution,"he said. "Rather I appeal to you to persuade me of its necessity."

What kind of response can the European Christians expect from their petitioned governments? If the response of these officials is any indication, they shouldn't have bothered:

A British official said it was too late to change the preamble, although national parliaments could add a "rider" stressing their country's Christian roots.

An EU official said: "These Christians could at least have the good grace to accept that they lost the argument."

Indians Aren't All That Thankful

The traditional Thanksgiving story is that some time in the fall of 1621, the settlers at Plymouth, Mass., held a feast to thank God they'd survived their harrowing first year in the New World.

They invited neighboring Indians, who had taught them agricultural skills critical to their survival. Together they celebrated their good fortune with a three-day feast.

The Connecticut Post reports that Trudy Lamb Richmond, director of public programs at the Mashantucket Pequot Museum and Research Center, says there is a problem with the traditional story:

No one invited the Indians.

According to Richmond, the settlers threw the party for themselves. Members of the local Wampanoag tribe arrived only after hearing the English firing their arms in celebration. This view may be historically accurate:

A firsthand account of the original Thanksgiving is provided in "Mourt's Relations," a series of letters written in 1620 and 1621, primarily by settler Edward Winslow.

He writes of a harvest celebration, "at which time amongst other recreations, we exercised our arms, many of the Indians coming amongst us and they went out and killed five deer, which they brought to the plantation and bestowed on our governor."

Some Indians see Thanksgiving as a day for mourning:

"To be honest with you, it's not all that nice a holiday for Native Americans," said Charlie Aspinwall, executive assistant to Chief Quiet Hawk of the Golden Hill Paugussett tribe, which has reservations in Trumbull and Colchester.

"It was the first encounter with the whites and, after that, the whites started killing and decimating Indians," said Aspinwall, a member of the Blackfeet tribe in Montana. "It's the beginning of the end of our society it was all downhill from there."

Chemical Weapons Lab Found in Falluja -Iraq Minister Of State

Reuters reports that Iraq's Minister of State Kassim Daoud, told a news conference that a laboratory for the manufacture of chemical weapons has been found in Falluja:

On Wednesday, Marines in Falluja said they had found a banner of the insurgent group led by Jordanian al Qaeda ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a chemicals laboratory in Falluja.

But they said there was no indication the lab was used to produce chemical weapons.

It was not clear whether Daoud was referring to the same laboratory. Marines said on Thursday they were not aware of any additional laboratories being discovered, and were skeptical that evidence had been found of the manufacture of chemical weapons.

I don't know how big a deal this is, but like all reports about WMDs in Iraq take a deep breath and see what develops. I think there is more to this story than the "Missiles With "Nuclear Heads" Found In Iraq" story.

I agree with James Joyner that this story may not pan out.