The Ukrainian Supreme Court has thrown out the results of last month's run-off election between Prime Minister Yanukovych opposition leader Yushchenko and called for a "repeat vote" to take in three weeks.
Reuters reports that this decision suggests that the "repeat vote will be would be a re-run of last month's run-off vote:
Chairman Anatoly Yarema, delivering the court's ruling after five days of deliberations, said a "repeat vote" was required.
He said this ballot should take place three weeks counting from Dec. 5 -- meaning Dec. 26 -- suggesting it would be a re-run of last month's run-off vote which opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko alleged was rigged by authorities.
Judges backed arguments by Yushchenko's camp, which have brought tens of thousands out on to the streets of the capital Kiev, that the vote had been subject to systematic fraud.
This is great news for the emerging democracy in Ukraine, but I am very worried about how Outgoing Ukrainian President Kuchma and Prime Minister Yanukovych will respond having failed to get the court to call for an entirely new election.
Yesterday Kuchma flew to Moscow and gained Russian President Vladimir Putin's backing yesterday against calls for a quick rerun of the last round of the disputed presidential election. According to the Washington Times, the move by the Russian leader underlines Kremlin fears that if Ukraine's opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko took power he would weaken links with Moscow and push Ukraine deeper into the West's embrace.
MosNews reports that both Zbigniew Brzezinski and former secretary of state Henry Kissinger are concerned about how Russia is responding to Ukraine's political crisis:
“If Ukrainian democracy prevails, Russia has no choice but to go to the West and to be a democracy,” Brzezinski said at an American Enterprise Institute event. “If Ukrainian democracy fails, Russia and imperial ambitions are awakened.”
“The stakes are of truly historic proportions,” he added.
Henry Kissinger also believes that Russia is still acting in the Soviet imperial manner, undeterred by the breakup of the USSR 15 years ago.
Putin has boxed himself into a bad spot. In a fair "repeat vote," Yushchenko will almost certainly win. There's a possibility that pro-Yanukovych regions in eastern Ukraine will refuse to accept Yushchenko as President, in which case Ukraine could split apart. Business Week quotes Nikolai Petrov, scholar-in-residence at Carnegie Moscow:
Putin has put himself into a corner. Now no outcome looks good for Russia
According to Business week, a divided Ukraine would lead to instability in a region where Russia has important economic interests 80 percent of the gas Russia exports to Europe goes through Ukraine. If the country remains united, Putin's goal of linking Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus in a new economic union are history. If Kuchma and Yanukovych figure out a way to retain power unrest would continue over a deeply unpopular regime in Kiev would hardly be a stable partner for Russia. Another risk for Putin is that the Ukrainian revolution inspires democratic opposition movements in other former Soviet republics, perhaps even in Russia.
I am worried about the possibility that Russia may react like the Soviet Union did to the Prague Spring. Warsaw Pact forces rolled into Prague on the night of August 20-21, 1968 crushing the Czechoslovak experiment in "socialism with a human face."
The BBC reports that it is unlikely that Russia would intervene militarily in Ukraine.
The respected Russian defence analyst, Pavel Felgenhauer, thinks such a scenario is highly unlikely.
"Putin's Russia does not have the military power to send in the tanks and dominate foreign countries", says Mr Felgenhauer.
"We cannot even bring Chechnya into line. What could we hope to achieve in Ukraine, with its rebellious population of nearly 50 million?"
The U.S. and all the worlds democracies should endorse the Ukainian Supreme Court's call for a "repeat vote."
The Blogosphere hasn't gotten into full gear on this yet. Some initial reactions from the usual suspects include:
Art Captain's Quarters, Captain Ed agrees that unless Kuchma calls in the Russians, he and Prime Minister Yanukovych are toast.
At Wizbang, Kevin Aylward points out that most of the cheating was done via absentee ballots, and posts that we should take note because early, unsupervised absentee voting is one of the fastest growing election trends here.
At SCSU Scholars, King links to the Kyiv Post quotes these paragraphs validating the claims of fraud:
In its ruling, the court slammed Ukraine's CEC, citing massive lapses by the government in the run-up to the election and in the vote counting that followed.
Particular attention was paid in the ruling to the numerous documented cases of fraud brought by the opposition. Among them were the improper transportation and handling of ballots; improperly or inadequately compiled voters lists; abuse of administrative resources in favor of the government-backed candidate, and lack of equal media access for both candidates.
Dan Drezner is also wondering whether Putin will tolerate the blow to his reputation that would come with a Yushchenko victory.
TulipGirl posts that she is happy and amazed at how things are turning out.
At A Fistful of Euros, David posts that Maidan reports that outgoing President Kuchma vetoed the recently passed law invalidating “absentee ballots” for the re-run. These ballots allowed Ukrainians to vote in other than their home districts, and were, according to numerous reports by international observers, one of the main instruments of electoral fraud in the initial run-off.
UPDATE:
At Outside The Beltway James Joyner posts this result is not surprising given how everything seemed to be breaking opposition leader Yushchenko's way.
At The Moderate Voice, Joe Gandelman posts that the courts decision indicates the roots of democracy are perhaps as strong as many of us in the West had hoped.
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