The Telegraph reports Mullah Omar, the Taliban's one-eyed leader, signed a letter explicitly endorsing the Waziristan Accord, the truce between the Pakistani authorities and pro-Taliban tribal provinces bordering Afghanistan:
Tribal elders in south Waziristan said that Mullah Omar had sent one of his most trusted and feared commanders, Mullah Dadullah, to ask local militants to sign the truce.[. . .]
"Had they been not asked by Mullah Omar, none of them were willing to sign an agreement," said Lateef Afridi, a tribal elder and former national assembly member. "This is no peace agreement, it is accepting Taliban rule in Pakistan's territory."
According to the Telegraph, Pakistan made a lot of concessions favoring the Taliban:
In return for an end to the US-backed government campaign in Waziristan, the tribal leaders - who have harboured Taliban and al-Qaeda units for more than five years - agreed to halt attacks on Pakistani troops, more than 500 of whom have been killed.[. . .]
In return for a reduction in the Pakistani army's 80,000-strong presence and the release of about 165 hardcore militants arrested for attacks on Pakistani armed forces, local Taliban agreed to stop supporting the foreign militants in their midst, and promised not to set up their own fundamentalist administrations.
The government also agreed to compensate tribal leaders for the loss of life and property, and to return all weapons and vehicles seized during army operations.
Pakistan's peace deal that effectively cedes Waziristan to the terrorists coupled with Pakistan's release of 2,500 foreign fighters can only be considered a setback in the War Against Terrorism.
Assistant secretary of state Richard Boucher endorsed the deal in a under-reported speech at the School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C.:
Noting that the government had carved out a new strategy to deal with the cross-border activities of Taliban and Al Qaeda sympathisers, Mr Boucher said: “The agreement really has the potential to work.”He said he believed the deal created an opportunity for local leaders to get hold of the problem of terrorism and it could enable the government “to get a political handle on this and enlist its citizens in the fight against terror”.
The US, he said, understood that to effectively control the Afghan border, Pakistan needed “cooperation from local tribes and they are really trying to get in.”
Mr Boucher said the US hoped that the agreement would leave a positive impact on the situation in the regions that are run by local tribal chiefs since the British days.
“Instead of challenging the tribal chiefs, Pakistan has signed an agreement with them and we believe that it is a good effort,” he said.
The official said the agreement would allow the local administration and the tribal chiefs to play a positive role in the development of their areas and also in restoring peace and security to the region.
The agreement, he said, would restrict the movement of Taliban and would not permit the presence of Al Qaeda and its sympathisers in the tribal belt. “Talibanisation will not be allowed, in the area or in the cities near the tribal region,” he said.
Mr Boucher said the government had made the tribal chiefs accept all these conditions before signing the agreement.
Sounds like wishful thinking and spin control to me. Does the State Department truly expect the tribal leaders to restrict the movement of Taliban fighters? I do not.
At Counterterrorism Blog, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross agrees that these recent developments in Pakistan are not good for the U.S., but correctly points out that things would be far worse if Musharraf lost power.
In a critical Muslim nation with nuclear weapons, it would be disastrous if a pro-Western military dictator were replaced by al-Qaeda-linked fundamentalists.
In the October 2, edition of the Weekly Standard, Bill Roggio and Daveed Gartenstein-Ross call the Waziristan Accord a "virtually unconditional surrender of Waziristan:"
Waziristan will serve as a training base for al Qaeda operatives of all stripes, as well as jihadists who want to attack their home countries. The 9/11 Commission Report notes that catastrophic terror attacks require sanctuaries that provide "time, space, and ability to perform competent planning and staff work." Al Qaeda has gained a new sanctuary in Waziristan.
The most optimistic sentence in their Pakistan Surrenders article states, "We urgently need solid ideas about how to cope with this problem before it grows worse." It can grow worse. Talks are underway that may lead to Pakistan's ceding parts of the North-West Frontier Province.
UPDATE: At Strata-Sphere, AJStrata has posted some optimistic speculation. As much as I would like to share in the optimism I just don't see any reason to think it is realistic. At The Fourth Rail, Bill Roggio sums up the Waziristan Accord, posting that the "Taliban and al-Qaeda have bought and paid for the local Islamists, and are controlling the Islamic Emirate of The Taliban and al-Qaeda have bought and paid for the local Islamists, and are controlling the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan."
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