It's "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" Showdown Day

On the eve of today's big vote on the so-called "immigration reform," three of the Republican architects of the Senate's immigration deal "threw their weight yesterday behind a significant change to the legislation that would force illegal immigrants to return to their home countries to apply for legal status."

The amendment added by Senators Jon Kyl (Ariz.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), and Mel Martinez (Fla.), may be a deal breaker. According to the Post, objections to the provision come from all sides including New Jersey Democratic Senator Robert Menendez, Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, and illegal aliens:

Last week, in the first-ever poll of illegal immigrants, 83 percent of the 1,600 undocumented Latinos surveyed told the polling firm Bendixen & Associates that they would pay the thousands of dollars in fines and fees, produce the work documents and submit to the background check needed for a Z Visa. But if they also had to return to their home countries, participation rates would drop to 63 percent, according to the poll commissioned by New America Media, a consortium of ethnic news media.

The White House "says it has the votes to resurrect the immigration bill," but Senate conservatives are mounting a mutiny:

Over the objections of the White House, House Republicans said they will vote this morning on a party resolution critical of the immigration bill the president has been struggling to have called back up in the Senate.

The administration had hoped to forestall such action given the timing of the Senate debate. But faced with pressure from their members, Republican leaders informed the White House that they will go ahead with the conference vote, just hours before a closely fought Senate roll call on proceeding to the bill.

The administration believes it can still get the 60 votes needed to cut off debate and move to the bill. But conservatives in the Senate were openly delighted with the prospect of House Republicans effectively endorsing their stand against the president.

"The White House has climbed way out on a limb, and we're going to cut it off," said Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.)

On the other side of the political spectrum, opposition from labor unions could doom the bill’s prospects by putting pressure on many Democrats to vote against it.

Will the deal pass the Senate? It's a very close call. So close that Harry Reid isn't capable of getting it done.