Can Republican Bobby Jindal get enough votes to win the Louisiana gubernatorial election outright and avoid a runoff? According to the Associated Press, it depends upon black voters:
If he gets more than 50 percent of the vote in Saturday's primary, the 36-year-old, Oxford-educated son of Indian immigrants will become Louisiana's first nonwhite governor since Reconstruction and the youngest U.S. governor in office.
The Republican's prospects have brightened thanks to three years of congressional experience, a splintered Democratic field and an incumbent whose political fortunes were done in by Hurricane Katrina.
Polls have shown Jindal has the support of nearly half the state's voters, and no one else is even close in the field of a dozen candidates.
"I personally think that Bobby Jindal will take it in the first round," said Pearson Cross, a University of Louisiana at Lafayette political scientist.
[. . .]
Political analysts think Jindal's chances of winning without a runoff hinge on black voters, who make up 29 percent of registered voters in Louisiana and have historically voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. Polls have indicated many black voters are still undecided in the governor's race.
Patrick Ruffini, a strategist campaign staffer, activist, and analyst dedicated to helping Republicans and conservatives, calls Bobby Jindal, the
anti-Huey Long.
Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, also thinks Jindal may avoid a runnoff:
But private polling suggests that Jindal has been improving his standing over the past week, and the Republican's get-out-the-vote operation appears to be a considerable additional advantage for him.
According to Rothenberg, this would be a great way to follow the strong Republican showing in Massachusetts earlier this week:
Coming on the heels on Jim Ogonowski's unexpectedly strong showing in the Massachusetts 5 special election, a clear-cut Jindal win would allow Republicans to press their case that the political environment is not as bad as it was for them.
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