Florida Republican Primary Prediction

Once again as Republicans vote, the polls are too close to predict a winner. My guess is that after a very nasty round of negative campaigning between McCain and Romney, McCain will pull out a slim victory that will look something like this:

John McCain - 35%
Mitt Romney - 33%
Rudy Giuliani - 17%
Mike Huckabee - 12%
Ron Paul - 4%

If Rudy does come in third or fourth I expect he will withdraw before super Tuesday.

The RealClear Politics average of surveys put McCain only eight-tenths of a point ahead of Mr. Romney (29.9% to 29.1%).

One poll finds Romney leading.

An American Research Group poll of likely GOP primary voters taken January 27-28 shows Romney leading with 34%, followed by McCain with 32%; Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 11%; and Paul, 4%.

Four other polls find McCain ahead.

As of Monday, Rasmussen Reports Florida survey had McCain and Romney tied at 31%, Giuliani is a distant third at 16% and Huckabee is in fourth place at 11%.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday finds McCain with a 1% lead over Romney, 32% to 31% and Giuliani with a 1% lead over Huckabee 14% to 13%.

A Strategic Vision poll of likely Florida GOP primary voters taken January 25-27 shows McCain leading with 27%, followed by Romney, 26%; Giuliani, 17%; Huckabee, 15%; and Paul, 5%.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll, finds McCain with a growing lead over Romney 35% to 31% and Giuliani and Huckabee tied at 13% each.

Comments

[Muslims Against Sharia]

Flashback: Giuliani to Arafat: "Take a hike!"

Source: http://muslimsagainstsharia.blogspot.com/2008/01/picture-is-worth-thousand-words.html

[Dan Kauffman]

But what is the magin of error on those polls???