The U.S. News Political Bulletin rounds up 10 New Hampshire primary polls and concludes both the Democratic and Republican races are too close to call:
- An <a href="http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/">American Research Group</a> poll of 600 likely Democratic voters conducted January 5-6 has Obama at 39%, Clinton 28%, John Edwards 22%, Gov. Bill Richardson 4%, Mike Gravel 2%, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich 2%. Among 600 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 35%, Romney 27%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Rep. Ron Paul 7%, Rep. Duncan Hunter 2%, Fred Thompson 2%, and Alan Keyes 1%.
- A <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/06/nh.poll/index.html">CNN /WMUR</a> poll of 268 likely Democratic voters conducted January 5-6 has Obama at 39%, followed by Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 16%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 341 likely Republican voters, McCain leads with 32%, followed by Romney, 26%; Huckabee, 14%; Giuliani, 11%; and Paul, 10%.
- A <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/433350.html">McClatchy /MSNBC</a> poll of 400 likely Democratic voters conducted January 2-4 has Obama at 33%, followed by Clinton, 31%; Edwards, 17%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 400 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 32%, followed by Romney, 24%; Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 9%; and Paul, 8%.
- A <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/">Rasmussen</a> automated poll of 1,240 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-5 has Obama at 39%, followed by Clinton, 27%; Edwards, 18%; and Richardson, 8%. Among 1,102 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 32%, Romney, 30%; Huckabee, 11%; Paul, 11%; and Giuliani, 9%.
- A <a href="http://www.suffolk.edu/26006.html">Suffolk University /7News</a> poll of 500 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-5 has Clinton at 35%; Obama, 33%; Edwards, 14%; and Richardson, 5%. Among 500 likely Republican voters, Romney is at 30%, followed by McCain, 27%; Giuliani, 10%; Paul, 9%; and Huckabee, 7%.
- A <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/103600/Obama-McCain-Lead-Among-New-Hampshire-Likely-Voters.aspx">USA Today/Gallup</a> poll of 778 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-6 has Obama at 41%, followed by Clinton, 28%; Edwards, 19%; and Richardson, 6%. Among 776 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 34%; Romney, 30%; Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 8%.
- A Zogby poll of 844 likely Democratic voters conducted January 2-6 has Clinton at 31%, followed by Obama, 30%; Edwards, 20%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 836 likely Republican voters, Romney is at 32%, McCain, 31%; Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 7%; and Paul, 6%.
- A <a href="http://www.franklinpierce.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_toc.htm">Franklin Pierce University /WBZ-TV</a> poll of 403 likely Democratic primary voters shows Obama leading with 34%, followed by Clinton with 31% and Edwards with 20%. On the GOP side, the survey of 409 likely GOP primary voters shows McCain leading with 38%, followed by Romney, 29%; Huckabee, 9%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 7%. The poll was conducted from January 4-6.
- A <a href="http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/new_hampshire_poll_010708.htm">Strategic Vision</a> poll shows Obama leading with 38%, followed by Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 19%; and Richardson, 7%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 35%, followed by Romney, 27%; Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 7%. The poll surveyed 600 likely Democratic primary goers and 600 likely GOP primary goers from January 4-6.
- A <a href="http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080106/FRONTPAGE/801060302/1043/NEWS01">Concord Monitor /Research 2000</a> poll shows Obama leading with 34%, followed by Clinton with 33% and Edwards with 23%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 35%, followed by Romney with 29%. The poll surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary goers and 400 likely GOP primary goers from January 4-5.
To complicate the picture further there latest Rasmussen poll finds only a one percent lead for McCain:
<blockquote>The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows John McCain earning 32% of the vote while Mitt Romney attracts 31%.
The survey was conducted on Saturday and Sunday. All interviews were conducted before Sunday night’s debate. Romney leads by five percentage points among Republicans while McCain leads by thirteen among Independents likely to take part.
The current poll shows Mike Huckabee with 11% of the vote, Rudy Giuliani close behind at 10%, and Ron Paul at 8%. Fred Thompson earns 3%, some other candidate attracts 2%, and 4% are not sure.
The race remains too close to call partly because of questions about how many Independents will participate, but also because a significant percentage of voters could change their mind. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Romney supporters are “certain” they will vote for him along with 70% of McCain’s supporters. However, just 8% of Romney voters and 7% of McCain fans say there is a “good chance” they will change their mind. </blockquote>
I prefer the 7NEWS/Suffolk University two-day rolling average poll, which finds <a href="http://cayankee.blogs.com/cayankee/2008/01/thursdays-7news.html">Romney continues to lead by substantial margins</a> in the two New Hampshire counties bordering Massachusetts. Those two counties account for more than half of the expected likely votes cast in the Republican Primary.
None of the polling reflects last night's Republican debate, which Romney won. My guess is that Romney has the momentum and may win.
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