Marc Ambinder does the fuzzy math for the Democratic nomination:
Ohio: Hillary wins by 4% and earns a net of 5 delegates.
Rhode Island: Hillary wins by 10% and earns a net of 3 delegates.
Texas: Obama wins by 8% and earns a net of 15 delegates.
Vermont: Obama wins handily and nets 3 delegates.
Wyoming: Assume that Obama only wins by 55% and picks up a net of 2 delegates.
Mississippi: Assume the split is 60/40 and Obama picks up a net of 7 delegates.
Pennsylvania: Assume that Hillary manages to win with 60% and earns 32 extra delegates.
Guam Assume Obama wins by 6% and neither Democrat wins any net delegates.
Indiana: Assume Obama wins by 6% and earns a net of 4 delegates.
North Carolina Assume Obama wins by 6% and earns a net of 7 delegates.
West Virginia Assume Hillary wins by 10% and earns a net of 2 delegates.
Kentucky Assume Hillary wins by 10% and earns a net of 5 delegates.
Oregon Assume Obama wins and earns a net of 6 delegates.
Montana and South Dakota: Assume Obama wins by 10% and earns a net of 3 net delegates.
Puerto Rico Assume Hillary wins by 80/20 and earns a net of 33 delegates.
Ambinder concludes that it doesn't look good for Hillary:
So -- under these most rosy of scenarios -- since March 4, she'll have earned 520 delegates to Barack Obama's 461, having reduced his earned delegate total by about 80 -- or -- by about 60 percent -- but he'll still have a lead of approximately 100 delegates in total... and be that much closer to 2025.Ambinder's point is that even making all kinds of assumptions favoring Hillary, the chances of her winning enough delegates to secure the nomination don't look good.
Lots of things can happen in the three months covered by Ambinder's projections, and you can always pick apart the assumptions. Some argue that if Hillary wins Ohio, Rhode Island and stays close in Texas, the momentum could change. We'll see.
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