Andy Martin predicts Hillary will win Indiana, with 55%, and North Carolina with 51%:
Obama is not going to get the wins he is expecting. The trend line is moving strongly against him.If we are correct and Obama loses both Indiana and North Carolina, his candidacy could begin to implode in the remaining primaries, leaving a virtual free-for-all at the close of the primary season in June. DNC National Chairman Howard Dean’s demand for prompt “action” on a nominee appears increasingly impractical and unrealistic.
[. . .]
The polarization which was evident in Pennsylvania is increasing in North Carolina and Indiana. Senator Obama’s percentage share of the vote has peaked in North Carolina and has begun to decline.
There is evidence to give some credence to Martin's prediction.
INDIANA
Hillary leads by nine in a new SurveyUSA poll, 52%-43%:
The results are identical to a SurveyUSA TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%. Other polls show the contest closer; some polls show Obama ahead.
A recent American Research Group poll found Hillary Clinton ahead by five, 50%-45%:
In a similar poll taken April 2-3, Clinton led Obama 53%-44%.
The American Leadership Project, a mostly union financed 527 group, $700,000 ad buy can't hurt Hillary's chances in Indians.
NORTH CAROLINA
A new American Research Group poll finds Obama up by ten, 52%-42%. Obama held a similar 52%-41% lead in a poll taken April 14-15.
But the latest PPP poll finds Obama's 25-point lead in North Carolina a week ago has now been cut in half:
Obama 51 (-6 vs. last poll, April 19-20)
Clinton 39 (+7)
The endorsement of North Carolina's Governor Mike Easley also gives Hilary an additional boost in the final week before the May 6th primaries.
With polls now finding Obama has been damaged by the renewed controversy about his minister of hate, Jeremiah Wright, maybe Martin is right. Nevertheless, Hillary would have to make up a lot of ground in North Carolina with just a week to go.
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