USA Today reports an "increasing number of top economists say the US economy is likely to narrowly avoid a recession this year, according to a new quarterly survey by USA TODAY:"
The survey "of 54 economists at corporations, universities and trade associations also indicates little support for a second government stimulus package, and a growing belief that the Federal Reserve should place greater emphasis on fighting inflation."In the new survey, "economists divide about evenly on the question of whether the US is now in recession: 51% say yes; 49% say no. In the April survey, 67% thought the economy was in recession."
An economic slowdown is not a recession. The textbook definition of a recession is a decline in Gross Domestic Product for two or more consecutive quarters. While the economy is definitely in a down turn, we haven't even had one quarter of decline in Gross Domestic Product.
That definition is unpopular with some. It does not take into consideration changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out.
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