Presidential Race Draws Even

A new Pew poll finds "Obama's lead over John McCain has disappeared:"

Pew's latest survey finds 46% of registered voters saying they favor or lean to the putative Democratic candidate, while 43% back his likely Republican rival. In late June, Obama held a comfortable 48%-to-40% margin over McCain, which narrowed in mid-July to 47% to 42%.

Pew cites two factors for shifting voter sentiment:

First, McCain is garnering more support from his base - including Republicans and white evangelical Protestants - than he was in June, and he also has steadily gained backing from white working class voters over this period. Secondly and more generally, the Arizona senator has made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done.

Conversely, Obama has made little progress in increasing his support among core Democrats since June - currently 83% favor him compared with 87% of Republicans who back McCain.

Pew also found McCain's leadership image has been strengthened:

By a two-to-one margin (54% to 27%) voters say the phrase "personally qualified to be president" better describes McCain, virtually unchanged from June. Voters also continue to see McCain as the candidate who is most likely to use good judgment in a crisis, and the GOP candidate also now holds an advantage over his opponent on other key leadership traits.

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The percentage of voters citing McCain as the candidate who "would use good judgment in a crisis" and as the candidate who "can get things done" has increased significantly since June. More than half of voters (51%) now say McCain would use good judgment while 36% say the phrase better describes Obama; in June, McCain held a narrower 9-point advantage. Opinions about which candidate can get things done are nearly evenly divided (42% name McCain and 40% name Obama); in June, Obama held a slight edge (43% to 37%).

McCain has also improved his advantage as the candidate who is "willing to take a stand, even if it's unpopular." Nearly half of voters say this phrase better describes the Republican candidate (48%), compared with 38% who say it better describes his Democratic opponent. In June, voters were about as likely to name McCain (44%) as they were to name Obama (41%).

Pew also compares candidate support with 2004 and 2002:

McCain's overall lead over Obama among white registered voters (51% to 39%) is comparable to the advantage held by Bush over his Democratic opponents in 2000 (52% to 41% over Al Gore) and in 2004 (50% to 42% over John Kerry) at similar points in the campaign. And many of the demographic differences seen in previous elections continue to hold today - white voters who are evangelical Protestants, who have higher incomes, and who live in the South are among the strongest backers of John McCain, as they were of George W. Bush in his presidential elections

But unlike the 2000 and 2004 elections, age and education are strongly related to the vote choice of whites this year. A slim majority (51%) of whites younger than age 30 favor Obama in the current survey, while McCain is leading by a wide margin among those ages 30 and older. In the summers of 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush ran at least as strongly among younger whites as he did among older whites. Similarly, Barack Obama garners substantially more support from college-educated whites than he does among those who never attended college - there was no difference between high- and low-education white voters in the past two elections.

The race is still volatile:

As was the case in June and July, one-in-three registered voters are swing voters, meaning that they either offer no initial candidate preference or say they might still change their mind. Currently, 35% of voters say they back Obama and have definitely decided not to vote for John McCain, 32% favor McCain and have definitely decided not to vote for Obama. Among independents, fully 46% fall into this swing voter category.

Finally the Pew poll found Obama still has a problem with Democrat deserters:

While 72% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters who backed Hillary Clinton for the party's nomination say they will support Barack Obama this fall, a significant number of holdouts remain. Among the 28% who say they will not support Obama on November 4th, 18% say they will support McCain , 7% don't yet know who they will support and 3% plan to back another candidate.

The Obama campaign has made no significant headway among former Clinton backers over the past two months. The voting preferences of Clinton's supporters are virtually identical to earlier polls in June and July.

With Russian aggression continuing in Georgia, and McCain's strong reaction McCain's leadership image will continue to strengthen.