CALIFORNIA YANKEE

Romney leads Obama by 6%

Rasmussen finds Mitt Romney now leads President Obama by 6% -- 45% to 39%.

That is the biggest lead a named Republican candidate has held over Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 match-up. It is also a new low for Obama. Previously Obama's support has ranged from 40% to 46% in match-ups with Romney.

Other interesting findings from this polling include:

• Romney holds a 20-point lead among male voters but trails by six among female voters.
• Romney has a 45% to 29% lead among unaffiliated voters.
• Romney earns an overwhelming 75% of the vote from TEA Party members.
• Romney leads 51% to 31% among mainstream voters, while Obama has 65% support from the political class.

The Rasmussen survey of likely voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2011 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

Romney leads in Iowa

Mitt Romney now leads the Real Clear Politics Average for the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus by 1.0:

• Romney - 21.8%
• Paul - 20.8%
• Santorum - 12.3%
• Gingrich - 15.3%
• Perry - 10.5%
• Bachmann - 9.5%
• Huntsman - 3.0%

The RCP average includes polling data from December 19 through 28, 2011.

A new  InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll finds Paul and Romney tied in the Iowa Republican Presidential race among registered voters who will be voting in the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus:

• Paul - 17.3%
• Romney - 17.2%
• Gingrich - 16.7%
• Santorum - 13.3%
• Bachmann - 11.8%
• Perry - 10.5%
• Huntsman - 2.8%

The latest CNN/Time poll finds Romney leads among likely Republican Iowa Caucus participants:

• Romney - 25% +5
• Paul - 22% -5
• Santorum - 16% +11
• Gingrich - 14% -19
• Perry - 11% +2%
• Bachmann - 9% +2%
• Huntsman - 1% no change

The CNN poll was taken December 21-24 and December 26-27, 2011 and has a +/-4.5 percent margin of error.

Last week, Rasmussen reported similar findings:

• Romney - 25%
• Paul - 20%
• Gingrich - 17%
• Perry - 10%
• Santorum - 10%
• Bachmann - 6%
• Huntsman - 4%

The Rasmussen poll was conducted December 19, 2011 and has a +/- 4 percent margin of error.

Even though the he CNN/Time poll could be seen as confirmation of the Rasmussen poll, take it all with a large grain of salt. There are many reasons not to put too much stock in these results including:

1. The CNN/Time poll found that 44% might change their mind before the January 3, 2012 caucuses. 
2. There is disagreement among the pollsters as to what impact Democrat and Independent voters might have in the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus. According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, the recent Public Policy Polling survey estimated that 24 percent of Iowa caucus participants are currently registered as independents or Democrats who will re-register as Republicans at the caucuses. The Washington Post/ABC News poll estimated it at 18% and the CNN poll assumes 0. At Unlikely Voter, my RedState colleague Neil Stevens says the PPP partisan alignment is all wrong. Niel argues for following the actual turnout for 2008 the Iowa caucuses,  which included 86% self-identified Republicans, 13% self-identified Independents who presumably registered Republican to caucus, 1% Democrats, 1% “Other.”

The bottom line is that five days before the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses we do not know who will come out where.

Merry Christmas

Wishing you and your loved ones a very merry Christmas.

And the angel said unto her, Fear not, Mary: for thou hast found favour with God. And, behold, thou shalt conceive in thy womb, and bring forth a Son, and shalt call His Name JESUS. He shall be great, and shall be called the Son of the Highest: and the LORD God shall give unto Him the throne of His father David. Luke 1:30-32

Happy Hanukkah

Hanukkah began at sundown and continues for 8 days.

Paul Greenberg explains Hanukkah's heritage of hope. Writing in the Washington Times in December 2003, Greenberg asks what does this eight-day celebration celebrate? His answer, Hanukkah isn’t about ancient military victories, Hanukkah celebrates miracles and hope.

The central metaphor of all religious belief — revealing light — now blots out all the imperial intrigues and internecine warfare. And that may be the greatest miracle of Hanukkah: the transformation of that oldest and darkest of human activities, war, into a feast of illumination.

The historical message changes from age to age. The past we choose to remember may be the best reflection of any present.

But if there is one constant message associated with this holiday, it can be found in the weekly portion of the Prophets chosen to be read on the Jewish Sabbath. And over the centuries, the scripture for the Sabbath of Hanukkah has remained unchanged: Zechariah 4:1-7, with its penultimate verse:

"Not by might, nor by power, but by My spirit, saith the Lord of Hosts."

Happy Hanukkah!

Democrats throw Obama under the bus and Obama caves again

The Democrat-controlled Senate voted 89-10 to pass an extension of the payroll tax cut. According to the Associated Press, the two-month extension requires President Obama to grant a permit for the Canada-to-Texas Keystone pipeline within 60 days unless he determines that the pipeline is "not in the national interest."

Obama had implied that he would veto any bill that required that he make a decision before it was politically expedient for him to do so. During his December 7, 2011-presser with Canada's Prime Minister Harper, Obama put everybody on notice:

First of all, any effort to try to tie Keystone to the payroll tax cut I will reject.  So everybody should be on notice.    

If you can stomach it, you can watch Obama say it here.

Obama, putting politics before country, tried to kick his decision down the road until after the 2012 elections. The Republican-controlled House didn't let Obama get away with that and passed a payroll tax cut extension bill despite Obama's veto threat.

Thrown under the bus by Senate Democrats, Obama again caved. White House communications director Dan Pfeiffer indicated Obama would sign the two-month extension measure. 

52 percent say Obama should be voted out of office

A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that "52 percent say Obama should be voted out of office."

The new poll is full of bad news for President Obama:

• 60% disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy.
• 59% of Independents disapprove of Obama's overall job performance.
• Only 29% support ObamaCare.
• Just 15% think the government should have the power to require all Americans to buy health insurance.
• Only 50% of Democrats support ObamaCare.

The new The Associated Press-GfK Poll confirms the findings of last week's CBS News Poll, which found that 54 percent don't think Obama deserves to be reelected. Only 7 percent of Republicans and 37 percent of Independents think Obama deserves a second term.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted December 8-12 2011 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percent. The CBS poll was conducted December 5-7, 2011 and has a margin of error of  plus or minus 3 percent.

Iraq War ends on Bush's schedule, not Obama's

President Obama and the biased media wing of the Democrat Party are heralding the "official" end of the Iraq War.

They are neglecting to note that in order to get the Democrats' nomination, presidential candidate Obama promised to remove all combat brigades from Iraq within 16 months:

Whatever nuance Barack Obama is now adding to his Iraq withdrawal strategy, the core plan on his Web site is as plain as day: Obama would "immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months."

As we reported in July 2008, Obama's 16 month withdrawal plan was not realistic. To save face, President Obama redesignated the 7 remaining combat brigades still in Iraq after his artificial 16 month deadline as "Advise and Assist Brigades," and declared his scheduled end to the war in Iraq on August 31, 2011

All U.S. troops, except for a 159 uniformed troops and officers as well as a marine guard in the US embassy in Baghdad, will be out of Iraq before December 31, 2011, as required by the Status of Forces Agreement President Bush made with Iraq.

The Democrats can trumpet the Obama Iraq withdrawal all they want, but it was accomplished right on schedule -- a schedule established by President Bush, not Obama.

Gingrich leads in Iowa

The Des Moines Register "Iowa Poll" finds Newt Gingrich in the lead with just 30 days until the Iowa caucuses:

Newt Gingrich: 25% (up 18% since the October 30th Iowa Poll)
Ron Paul: 18% (+ 6%)
Mitt Romney: 16% (- 6%)
Herman Cain: 8% (- 15%)
Michele Bachmann: 8% (no change)
Rick Perry: 6% (- 1%)
Rick Santorum: 6% (+ 1%)
Jon Huntsman: 2% (+ 1%)

The poll was conducted November 27-30, before Herman Cain suspended his camapaign.

The big question now is whether Gingrich can withstand the scrutiny of being the front-runner.

According to the Register, "Gingrich’s ascendancy has the potential to grow:

More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43 percent of likely caucus goers pick him as first or second.

Other interesting findings from the poll:

• The race remains elastic. Eleven percent of likely caucus goers are uncommitted to a first choice, and 60percent are still willing to change their mind. 
• Pluralities of likely caucus goers see Romney as the most electable candidate in the general election, and the most presidential.
• Gingrich supporters name Romney as their second choice more than any other candidate.
• Gingrich does best with seniors (37 percent) and very conservative caucus goers (35 percent). He leads with TEA partiers (30 percent), and especially with those who consider themselves strong TEA party supporters (43 percent). He does better than average with those who are very conservative fiscally (30 percent), very conservative socially (31 percent), and with those who consider themselves born-again Christians (30 percent).
• Seventeen percent say Rick Perry the candidate  they’d most like to see, second only to Gingrich (26 percent).

Keep in mind that not a single vote as yet been cast.

Cain suspends presidential campaign

Herman Cain has suspended his campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:

"So as of today, with a lot of prayer and soul searching, I am suspending my presidential campaign. I am suspending my presidential campaign because of the continued distraction, the continued hurt caused on me and my family. Not because we are not fighters. Not because I'm not a fighter. It is just that when I went through this reassessment of the impact on my family first, the impact on you, my supporters. Your support has been unwavering, as well as undying,"

Watch the video:

Suspending his campaign allows Cain to continue to raise and spend campaign funds.

Speaking at his new Campaign headquarters in Atlanta, with his wife by his side, Cain said that he had to come this conclusion because of the impact of false allegations on his family.

Cain also announced that he will continue to be a voice for the people through his CainSolutions.com

To continue his quest for the presidency Cain would have to overcome polls which show that a majority of likely U.S. voters say Cain should end his bid for the GOP nomination and his that his support in Iowa is plumeting.

Cain would also have to overcome his recent inability to articulate foreign policy positions as well as the allegations of sexual harassment and an affair.