CALIFORNIA YANKEE

Karzai Formally Declared Winner

Hamid Karzai was formally declared the winner of the Afghanistan presidential election this afternoon after an international panel announced that irregularities it had investigated were not significant enough to change the overall result.

UPDATE: The Associated Press reports that Karzai's main opponents in Afghanistan's presidential election concede.

Yunus Qanooni, who received 16 percent of the vote, said he would accept the result of the election.

Ethnic Hazara chieftain Mohammed Mohaqeq and strongman Abdul Rashid Dostum also said they would recognize Karzai as president.

This is very good news for Afghanistan's fledgling democracy.

Election Official Says Karzai Wins

The Associated Press reports that Counting in Afghanistan's presidential election concluded Tuesday, with Hamid Karzai the clear winner:

Investigators were still examining about 100 ballot boxes to clear up lingering fraud allegations, but the election's chief technical officer said the count was effectively "over and done."

"It's just these last dribs and drabs to be approved," David Avery told The Associated Press. "It's really nothing that can affect the outcome."

David Avery is chief of operations for the Joint Electoral Management Body (JEMB).

The JEMB was established as a Legal/Administrative body tasked with the issuance and publication of regulations, procedures, instructions, notifications, and guidelines for the registration process. The JEMB is responsible for preparing, managing, convening and overseeing the Afghan elections.

Karzai Wins

Agence France-Presse reports that Hamid Karzai has won outright victory in Afghanistan's first presidential election.

As soon as Karzai's tally passed four million ballots, of an estimated eight million cast, Karzai's aides claimed victory. Karzai's chief rival, Yunus Qanooni, was swift to acknowledge Karzai's majority.

With 94 percent of ballots counted, Karzai had 4,219,569 votes at the latest tally or 55.3 percent of the estimated total vote compared with Qanooni's 16.2 percent.

Karzai's victory is still unofficial. An official declaration of results is still days away. According to United Nations spokesman Manoel de Almeida e Silva:

The last vote must be counted and a panel probing alleged fraud must submit its findings before the result and victor can be declared.

Afghanistan's election was a crucial step in the country's journey to democracy after decades of violent rule that has successively seen communists, the Soviet Union, warlords, and the Taliban brutalize this poor country. The fact that the election was held is a great victory in the war against terrorism. That Karzai's chief rival Qanooni has acknowledge that Karzai won represents an even greater victory and offers hope that Afghanistan will develop a democratic tradition.

I agree with Ed Morrissey that without Qanooni's acceptance of the democratically-achieved result Afghanistan's fledgling democracy could not survive.

Kerry Distorts History

In a New York Times op-ed piece, Retired General Tommy Franks, former commander of the allied forces in the Middle East and responsible for the operation at Tora Bora corrects Kerry's distortion of history that Osama bin Laden was allowed to escape because we "outsourced" the job to Afghan warlords:

Franks writes that Kerry's "understanding of events doesn't square with reality."

First, take Mr. Kerry's contention that we "had an opportunity to capture or kill Osama bin Laden" and that "we had him surrounded." We don't know to this day whether Mr. bin Laden was at Tora Bora in December 2001. Some intelligence sources said he was; others indicated he was in Pakistan at the time; still others suggested he was in Kashmir. Tora Bora was teeming with Taliban and Qaeda operatives, many of whom were killed or captured, but Mr. bin Laden was never within our grasp.

Second, we did not "outsource" military action. We did rely heavily on Afghans because they knew Tora Bora, a mountainous, geographically difficult region on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is where Afghan mujahedeen holed up for years, keeping alive their resistance to the Soviet Union. Killing and capturing Taliban and Qaeda fighters was best done by the Afghan fighters who already knew the caves and tunnels.

Third, the Afghans weren't left to do the job alone. Special forces from the United States and several other countries were there, providing tactical leadership and calling in air strikes. Pakistani troops also provided significant help - as many as 100,000 sealed the border and rounded up hundreds of Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

Contrary to Senator Kerry, President Bush never "took his eye off the ball" when it came to Osama bin Laden. The war on terrorism has a global focus. It cannot be divided into separate and unrelated wars, one in Afghanistan and another in Iraq. Both are part of the same effort to capture and kill terrorists before they are able to strike America again, potentially with weapons of mass destruction. Terrorist cells are operating in some 60 countries, and the United States, in coordination with dozens of allies, is waging this war on many fronts.

As we planned for potential military action in Iraq and conducted counterterrorist operations in several other countries in the region, Afghanistan remained a center of focus. Neither attention nor manpower was diverted from Afghanistan to Iraq. When we started Operation Iraqi Freedom we had about 9,500 troops in Afghanistan, and by the time we finished major combat operations in Iraq last May we had more than 10,000 troops in Afghanistan.

We are committed to winning this war on all fronts, and we are making impressive gains. Afghanistan has held the first free elections in its history. Iraq is led by a free government made up of its own citizens. By the end of this year, NATO and American forces will have trained 125,000 Iraqis to enforce the law, fight insurgents and secure the borders. This is in addition to the great humanitarian progress already achieved in Iraq.

Many hurdles remain, of course. But the gravest danger would result from the withdrawal of American troops before we finish our work. Today we are asking our servicemen and women to do more, in more places, than we have in decades. They deserve honest, consistent, no-spin leadership that respects them, their families and their sacrifices. The war against terrorism is the right war at the right time for the right reasons. And Iraq is one of the places that war must be fought and won. George W. Bush has his eye on that ball and Senator John Kerry does not.

Well said.

More Violence In Afghanistan

The Associated Press reports that an explosion in the office of an American defense contractor in Kabul Sunday, killing as many as six people:

The blast hit the office of Dyncorp Inc., an American firm that provides security for Afghan President Hamid Karzai on behalf of the United States and works for the U.S. government in Iraq, said Nick Downie of the Afghanistan NGO Security Office.

[. . .]

Dyncorp Inc. is a division of Computer Science Services, Inc., based in El Segundo, Calif.

The BBC reports that "Taleban militants told Reuters news agency it was a suicide car bomb attack by one of their fighters."

An at a school in southeastern Afghanistan, another explosion killed nine children and one adult. The Associated Press reports that an Afghan official said the school explosion was caused by a bomb, though the military said it was still unclear:

"There was an explosion, that's all we know," American spokeswoman Master Sgt. Ann Bennett said.

Not all the news from Afghanistan is bad. The Associated Press reports that a renegade warlord was arrested just weeks after his troops clashed with militiamen loyal to a powerful regional governor.

Amanullah, a Pashtun warlord who goes by only one name, was brought to Kabul on Friday from the western city of Herat, said Jawed Ludin, a spokesman for President Hamid Karzai. Ludin said Amanullah agreed to the transfer, but officials speaking on condition of anonymity said he had little choice and was essentially being kept under arrest.

[. . .]

Government officials indicated that the move against Amanullah was part of efforts to eliminate private armies that have faced off in several Afghan provinces in recent months, compromising security for Oct. 9 national elections.

Amanullah and Khan swear allegiance to Karzai's government, but both often act in their own interests. Neither has agreed to disarm their troops as part of a slow-going nationwide program to demobilize tens of thousands of private soldiers.

Dozens were killed in fighting that broke out earlier this month between militiamen loyal to Amanullah and those that answer to Herat Gov. Ismail Khan, an ethnic Tajik strongman who rules the city with an iron fist. In March fighting in Herat included tank battles.

The Associated Press also reports that in southern Zabul province, U.S. and Afghan soldiers conducting a sweep arrested 22 suspected Taliban after a firefight in a forbidding mountain area.

U.S. military spokesman Maj. Scott Nelson confirmed operations in Zabul and Ghazni and said 22 Taliban suspects had been arrested.

90 Percent of Afghans Registered To Vote

Overcoming a violent campaign to disrupt the effort, about 90 percent of the Afghan electorate has registered to vote in October's presidential election. The Associated Press reports :

According to the latest U.N. figures, 8.7 million of an estimated 9.8 million eligible voters have collected ID cards that will allow them to cast a ballot when polling begins Oct. 9 in Afghanistan's first-ever direct national vote.

[. . .]

"The participation is amazing," U.N. spokesman David Singh said. "There was a lot of skepticism about this process at the beginning, but the targets have been fulfilled."

This is a significant victory in the war against terror. The evil doers mounted a terror campaign against the voter registration effort. According to the Associated Press:

At least nine people working to prepare the elections have been killed in attacks sometimes claimed by the Taliban, despite efforts by some 20,000 U.S.-led troops to protect the process.

Most recently, an Afghan election worker and a voter was killed Wednesday when a bomb exploded in a mosque being used as registration center in Ghazni province. A mine seriously injured three election workers in the Taliban stronghold of Uruzgan on Friday, Afghan officials said.

This gives me great hope for Afghanistan.

Taliban Kill 14

Taliban guerrillas have killed nine government troops and five policemen in Southern Afghanistan.

According to Reuters:

The Islamist fighters killed the nine soldiers in an ambush on a patrol in Kandahar province's remote district of Meya Nishin late Monday, according to Taliban spokesman Haji Latif Hakimi.

Khalid Pashtun, a spokesman for Kandahar's governor confirmed the ambush, but said he had heard only five soldiers were killed.

Doctors in neighboring Zabul province told Reuters they had received the bullet ridden bodies of five policemen abducted on Monday in the Shah Joy district.

"We have killed the five that we kidnaped," Taliban commander Mullah Rozi Khan told Reuters.

Four government soldiers were killed Sunday in Zabul in a mine blast.

Is it just me, or is anyone else bothered that Reuters is getting quotes from a Taliban commander?"

Tank Battles Rage Herat Afghanistan

Reuters reports that the Afghan Civil Aviation Minister Mirwais Sadiq was killed in the western Ahghan city of Herat on Sunday, provoking tank battles in which more than 100 people died.

Herat's provincial governor, Ismail Khan, is the father of the slain cabinet minister.

According to Reuters an intense struggle for control of Herat was underway between Khan's forces and those of the central government in several areas of the city:

Ismail Khan, an Islamic hard-liner, has been at odds with Karzai's U.S.-backed government for failing to hand over tens of millions of dollars of customs revenues from Herat, which controls the bulk of Afghanistan's trade.

A veteran of the struggle against Soviet rule in the 1980s, Khan professes loyalty to Karzai but is often accused of running a personal fiefdom in the west.

Karzai chaired an emergency National Security Council meeting and a presidential spokesman said government troops would be sent to restore order.

Being Afghanistan's Civil Aviation Minister isn't good for one's healt. In February 2002, Sadiq's predecessor as Civil Aviation Minister, Abdul Rahman, was assassinated at Kabul airport.

Good News From The Afghan Front

Captain Ed, at Captain's Quarters, brings our attention to this Associated Press article reporting that the evildoers are "running out of energy:"

The Associated Press quotes U.S. Marine Gen. James L. Jones, who is also NATO's supreme allied commander Europe:

The level of the threat ... is quite a bit lower than I had thought.

U.S. commanders estimate there are fewer than 1,000 fighters of the ousted Taliban regime and their al-Qaida allies in Afghanistan.

General Jones' observation may be the result of al-Qaeda's pullback from Afghanistan to focus on Iraq that I posted about here.

Captain Ed posts that credit for the improving situation in Afghanistan is due to the new Afghan constitution. Ed is right when he states that only by overcoming the oppressive regimes in the Middle East will we prevail in the war on terror. As President Bush discussed in his speeches on Iraq Policy at Whitehall Palace and at National Endowment for Democracy forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East is our strategy in the war against terrorism. After reading the Age of Secret Terror and The Crisis In Islam, I am convinced that it is best strategy available.

As I posted here, I was very critical of the early versions of the new Afghan constitution, but my criticism has softened and I agree that Afghanistan is a better place because of the new constitution.

Afghan Pax Democratica

Promoting democracy in the Middle East and Central Asia is one of the long-term goals of the war against terrorism. Unfortunately, enthusiasm for this goal must be tempered by the difficulty of quickly implanting alien Western civic values in tribal Islamic nations.

On Sunday, after a three week struggle complete with walkouts and more than enough political intrigue, Afghanistan’s loya jirga, or national convention, endorsed the draft Afghan Constitution.

The New York Times reports that significant highlights of the draft constitution include:

Afghanistan is an Islamic republic with Islam as its "sacred religion."

Followers of other religions are free to perform religious ceremonies in accordance with the provisions of the law.

No law shall be contrary to the beliefs and practices of Islam.

Men and women have equal rights and duties before the law.

The president will be elected by the Afghan people, with two vice presidents, nominated by presidential candidates.

A national assembly will consist of two houses: a Wolesi Jirga or "house of people" and a Meshrano Jirga or "house of elders."

The president will appoint ministers, the attorney general and central bank governor with the approval of the Wolesi Jirga.

Pashto and Dari are the official languages, with other languages to be considered official languages in the areas in which they are spoken.

President Bush cheered the new Constitution, saying:

A democratic Afghanistan will serve the interests and just aspirations of all of the Afghan people and help ensure that terror finds no further refuge in that proud land.

As I have posted previously, here, here and here, I remain concerned that the draft constitution names Afghanistan an Islamic Republic. The provision that no law shall be contrary to the beliefs and practices of Islam is even more bothersome. That provision sets up a constitutional conflict with the provisions that guarantee equal rights to men and women.

Having followed Afghan’s constitutional struggle, I have come to realize that even though the constitution is not perfect and is inconsistent, it should be viewed as another success in the war against terror. It demonstrates that Afghans want some form of democracy and that they were able to come to a peaceful agreement about the form of a democratic government.

Joe Carter of the evangelical outpost is not satisfied with the constitution. He believes it does too little to protect religious freedom. Joe has expressed his concerns and points out several of the constitution's inconsistencies in at least three thoughtful posts.

The conservative Islamic judiciary must still be watched because of issues like those Joe points out and to ensure that the recent freedoms provided to Afghan women are not diminished.

Brett Marston, at Marstonalia, which I found thanks to Seven Taylor, at Poliblog, writes about the structure of the Afghan Supreme Court under the new constitution. Brett posts that:

Justices serve a single limited ten years term;

Justices are nominated by the President and approved by one of the bodies of the legislature (the Wolesi Jirga); and

The President has sole authority to pick the Chief Justice.

Brett finds comfort in this structure noting that “partisan entrenchment over the long term will be relatively difficult to obtain but possible over the short term.” I take that to mean that President Karzai will be able to pack the Supreme Court initially. If Karzai can accomplish that, then there is less worry over the conservative Islamic judiciary.

Zalmay Khalilzad, special presidential envoy and ambassador to Afghanistan, writes in today’s Washington Post praise the Afghan people:

Instead of relying on the power of the gun, they embraced the often difficult and sometimes messy democratic process of debating, listening and compromising. They trusted in the power of their words by openly deliberating the important issues. Afghans used newspapers, radios, teahouses, schools, universities, mosques -- even the Internet -- as forums to debate fundamental issues such as the system of government, the role of religion, human rights -- particularly the role of women -- and, in a country with more than a dozen ethnic groups, such emotional issues as official languages and the relationship between the center and provinces. Such a wide-ranging debate is unprecedented in more than 5,000 years of Afghan history.

I have softened my view of the new constitution and agree with the sentiments expressed by Steven Taylor, at Poliblog, “Afghanistan is a better place. It is imperfect, to be sure, but clearly better.” It may be, as Ed, of Captain’s Quarters, says “A Giant Step For Freedom.” However it is one step in a long journey.