CALIFORNIA YANKEE

Romney To Rally Establishment Around Rubio

Numerous sources are reporting Mitt Romney will endorse Sen. Marco Rubio.  That's a story Rubio denies:

"That report is false, I have no reason to believe he's anywhere near endorsing anyone. I would love to have his endorsement. It's important to nominate someone who can bring everyone together ... and that's one reason I think I'll be the nominee, and Romney could be a part of that," Rubio said on CNN's "State of the Union."

The Establishment hesitated to rally behind Rubio as long as Jeb Bush remained in the race. The Republican Establishment, seeing the Bush campaign's inability to gain traction, actually began to rally around Rubio last week. At the New York Times' "FiveThirtyEight," Harry Enten noted the Establishment movement to endorse Rubio:

Rubio has picked up the endorsements of Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas and Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina this week. Indeed, Rubio has greatly increased his endorsement pace since the Iowa caucuses, picking up 42 weighted endorsement points in the past two-and-a-half weeks, according to the FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker. That’s nearly half of the 85 points he has overall.

FiveThirtyEight’s system gives 10 points for endorsements from governors, five points for endorsements from U.S. senators and one point for endorsements from U.S. representatives.

It's not clear how much endorsements help, But there can be little doubt that having Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott and Congressman Trey Gowdy, all TEA Party favorites, was a big boost for Rubio in South Carolina. But can you really consider that Establishment support?

Will Romney's support help Rubio? It may make him more acceptable to the Establishment voters -- the nearly half of the Republican primary electorate not voting for Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, giving Rubio an edge over Kasich. Politico is calling Rubio Romney 2.0:

But strip away Rubio’s rags-to-presidential contender biography, and his candidacy has more than a little in common with Romney’s -- from policy platforms that are largely in sync to a braintrust that boasts a number of the same key figures. When it comes to the substance of what he’d try to do in the job, at least, Rubio is not promising a sharp break from the last establishment favorite the party put forward.

"I think that they are very much on the same place on most of the issues," Vin Weber, a former House member and special adviser to Romney in 2012, said approvingly. On foreign policy, taxes and economic growth, “their positions are very similar, and on most of the other domestic and social issues they come down the same place as well.”

Romney's former political director Rich Beeson serves as deputy campaign manager for Rubio. Lanhee Chen of the Hoover Institute worked as Romney's policy director and now serves as a policy advisor to Rubio. And Rubio's political director, Jessica Ennis, was Romney's deputy operations director. Rubio's finance people, Annie Baker and Eli Miller, also worked for Romney's 2012 campaign. And Rubio's outside strategists, including Poolhouse Digital, which is run by two Romney alums: Will Ritter and Tim O’Toole.

The difference between Rubio and Romney is the messenger. It's Rubio's American Dream story versus Romney's silver spoon and Rubio's gift of being perhaps the most articulate candidate since Ronald Reagan. As Politico puts it:

At every campaign stop, Marco Rubio calls it “the biggest lie in American politics” – the notion that Republicans are the party of the super wealthy, and hopelessly out of touch with the working class and minorities.

The party, in other words, that Democrats eviscerated with Mitt Romney at the helm in 2012.

[. . .]

We can’t afford to keep being your father’s Republican Party. And if you want to stop talking about expanding the GOP tent and actually do it – without compromising on principle – I’m your guy.

Sure, there is a huge connection between the defeated Romney campaign and Rubio campaign, But that hardly makes the once TEA Party favorite Rubio Romney 2.0. As Rubio continues to morph into the Establishment favorite the question remains, can he make a dent in the Trump and Cruz anti-Establishment voters. Will enough of those voters give up the grudge they continue to hold against Rubio for his Gang of Eight work on comprehensive immigration reform? Or as those voters refer to it -- Amnesty.

Cross posted from RedState.

Will Marcomentum Overcome Cruz And Trump

With a solid South Carolina debate performance, and the endorsements of Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott and Congressman Trey Gowdy, Sen. Marco Rubio's Marcomentum is back. Gov. Haley is one of the most popular governors in the country. She has earned national recognition for her handling of the mass shooting at a black church in Charleston last June, including her successful call to lower the Confederate battle flag from the state capitol’s grounds. Haley is often mentioned as a vice-presidential prospect.

Is that enough to overcome Donald Trump's double digit lead in South Carolina Republican primary polls? The Donald's support may be collapsing after his disastrous South Carolina debate performance.

Can Marcomentum overcome the South Carolina ground game of Sen. Ted Cruz, which the campaign says is making 50,000 calls a day and knocking on more than 7,000 doors each day? The Cruz campaign has over 11,000 South Carolina volunteers, along with hundreds of out of state volunteers helping in campaign centers throughout the state. In addition, the campaign has campaign chairs and faith leaders in each county including 300 plus pastors and faith leaders who endorsed Cruz. On Friday, Cruz was endorsed by Congressman Mark Sanford, the state’s former governor. Sanford’s backing may help Cruz in the southern part of the state, where Sanford’s district is located. Cruz is already strong in the more-conservative upstate area. Cruz is feeling confident enough to change his schedule and attend the funeral of Justice Scalia.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Cruz ground game is supplemented a Cruz-supporting Super PAC field operation consisting of more than 100 volunteers and paid workers are organizing in 10 counties in South Carolina. This is a new and more productive use of Super PAC resources than the usual role of "TV-driven attack dogs."

With the Marcomentum come higher expectations, Team Cruz is doing its best to dive Rubio's expectations higher saying Rubio now needs to win the South Carolina primary:

 “If he doesn’t finish first, this is a massive loss,” Jason Miller, a senior Cruz adviser, said hours after news reports began circulating that Haley would endorse Rubio at a rally Wednesday evening. “Rubio has to win here.”
 
[. . .]
 
“From the beginning, they had a 3-2-1 strategy of finishing third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire and first in South Carolina,” Miller said of Rubio’s campaign. “Anything short of a first-place finish in South Carolina for Marco Rubio is a loss.”

Right, it was Rubio who set the expectation that he would win the South Carolina Primary. But Trey Gowdy is now saying third is all Rubio needs [video report].

Cross posted from RedState.

Did Rubio Snub The Conservative Review Convention For Megyn Kelly?

Sen. Marco Rubio did himself no favors on Thursday evening when he snubbed the Conservative Review Convention. The Daily Mail reports that the delay in Rubio's schedule that caused him to miss the Convention appearance was an interview with Megyn Kelly:

If Rubio loses big time on Saturday, it won't be for lack of trying, though he did himself no favors on Thursday evening when he cancelled an appearance at a conservative conference Cruz and Ben Carson were speaking at because of a 'delay' in his schedule.

His campaign gave just 30 minutes notice to event organizers that he wouldn't attend the Greenville event.

The cause for the cancellation appeared to be an interview with Megyn Kelly for her FOX News program. Kelly posts big numbers. The ones that will count on Saturday are in South Carolina, however, and his snub to conservatives on Thursday could shift votes toward Cruz.

The interview was included in the Rubio's Campaign daily campaign email on Friday morning. You can watch the interview in the following video:

Regardless of Kelly's "big numbers," Rubio would have been better off showing up at the Conservative Review Convention. During the Kelly interview Rubio was able to talk about the phony holy war between Trump and Pope Francis. Gov. Nikki Haley had to give one of those non-answer responses -- saying how content and happy she was in South Carolina, to a question about possibly being Rubio's running mate. And the last half of the interview was dedicated to Rubio's continuing his Trump-like calling Sen. Ted Cruz a liar. But to Rubio's credit this time he managed to refrain from actually using the L-word and instead used phrases such as isn't true and not telling the truth.

Compare Rubio's five minutes of Kelly's big numbers to the 24 minutes during which Cruz wowed the audience at the Conservative Review Convention. As the Daily Mail suggested, it's the numbers in South Carolina that count more today.

Cross posted from RedState.

Bush Staffers Looking For Work

Even as the Jeb Bush campaign announced Jeb's post-South Carolina schedule in an all too obvious attempt to tamp down reports that Jeb would finally throw in the towel, Politico reveals that Bush campaign staff are a shopping their resumes with Florida political consultants anticipating that their candidate won’t push on after South Carolina:

"I can unequivocally tell you that people are looking for work, because they say they’ve been led to believe that they won’t have a job because the campaign won’t be around any longer or their jobs won’t because the campaign won’t have any money," said one Republican who helps run one of the Florida campaigns.

[. . .]

"The people who work in the campaign business aren’t stupid. They can read the polls," said a third Republican consultant who backs Rubio and is involved with another Florida campaign. "A month ago, we had conversations with people and no one was interested. Now they are. They’re calling us asking 'Hey, want to talk? I think I’m going to be free on Monday.'All those people work for Jeb."

According to Politico the calls picked up Wednesday after Rubio was endorsed by South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Bush didn't handle Haley's endorsement very well.

Bush hasn't been the best presidential candidate. There were times when he could get out of his own way like giving four different answers in five days to whether, in hindsight, he would have supported the Iraq war. A question he should have expected and been prepared to answer.

It's time Bush realized what the Fox News national  poll released Thursday  confirmed, voters are suffering from "dynasty fatigue" -- 52 percent of voters say they are tired of Clintons running for president and 59 percent feel that way about the Bush family.

Cross posted from RedState.

Trump Collapsing in South Carolina

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll, released Friday, finds that what had been a 16-point lead for Donald Trump is now only 5 points:

• Donald Trump - 28%
• Ted Cruz - 23%
• Marco Rubio - 15%
• Jeb Bush - 13%
• Ben Carson - 9%
• John Kasich - 9%.

Trump's decline among South Carolina Republicans came a day after a WSJ/NBC News national poll of Republican primary voters found that Trump lost his once-commanding lead and fallen behind Cruz. Most national polls, and the Real Clear Politics average for the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary show Trump with a double-digit lead over his rivals.

The new Journal/NBC/Marist poll in South Carolina was conducted Feb. 15-17, after Trump's abysmal performance during the CBS South Carolina GOP Debate. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.6 percent for the Republicans.

The new poll also found that that Hillary Clinton maintains a wide lead over Bernie Sanders among likely South Carolina Democrat primary voters.

• Hillary Clinton - 60%
• Bernie Sanders - 32%

Hillary maintains a huge advantage among the state’s African-American population, especially older black voters -- out polling Sanders 78% to 12%. Sanders leads Hillary among white voters, 51% to 46%. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4.8 percent for the Democrats.

South Carolina is starting to look a lot like Iowa.

Cross posted from RedState.

Wouldn't You Like More Ads Like 'Stop'

The presidential Campaign of Sen. Ted Cruz is out with a powerful new ad entitled "Stop." But before we look at the ad, lets complain about negative ads. People hate and complain about negative political ads. When they ask why so many ads are negative the response is always that negative ads work. When campaign strategists say negative ads work they mean voters remember the negative ads more than they remember the positive ones.

If you think you are seeing more negative ads during this presidential campaign you are right. As of  April 9, 2015, 96 percent of the 321 2016 presidential election-related ads that had been on TV were negative:

That's right -- just 4% have been about promoting a positive message for the future. The rest have been about tarring the other side.

This is a change from previous presidential campaigns:

By this point in the 2008 and 2012 cycles, all the way-too-early ads that had aired (except for a few retreads from previous cycles that wound up on the air either by mistake or in haste) sought to build candidates up, not tear them down.

Fox News reports that in Iowa this presidential campaign, Trump and Rubio were each targeted in 13 negative ads, more than any of the other candidates. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was only hit with five. Cruz produced more negative ads than any other candidate, but a single Trump spot attacking Cruz on immigration aired 1,377 times -- among the highest of all negative ads. The single most-aired negative ad was paid for by a Jeb Bush-supporting Super PAC attacking Rubio for flip-flopping on a variety of issues.

So it's nice to see ad like the Cruz Campaign's "Stop" -- a positive 60 second message launched Thursday. In the ad, Cruz restates his commitment to standing with the American people and not Washington dealmakers, while laying out his positive, conservative vision for America. You can watch the ad below:

 CRUZ: Washington deals. It's why we have a $19 trillion debt.
 
Some candidates have promised to cut more deals with the Democrats. Others already have. I won't.
 
Washington deals are bankrupting our kids and grand kids. It has to stop.
 
I’ve stood up to the Washington lobbyists – like when I took on the ethanol mandate in Iowa. They said it was political suicide. My opponents attacked me, promising more cronyism and more corporate welfare.
 
I didn't back down... and we won.
 
As President I will say no to amnesty, repeal ObamaCare, abolish the IRS and defend the Constitution.
 
When Washington deal makers push, I won't flinch.
 
I will stand firm with the American people, whether Washington likes it or not.
 
VOICEOVER: No wonder conservatives like Rush Limbaugh are saying:
 
RUSH: “…There is no other choice for you in this campaign than Ted Cruz.”
 
“This is the closest in our lifetimes we have ever been to Ronald Reagan.”
 
CRUZ: I'm Ted Cruz, and I approve this message.

The ad is currently running statewide in South Carolina. Let's hope we see more powerful and positive ads like this from all the campaigns.

Cross posted from RedState.

Group Backing Ted Cruz Drops $2 Million On Advertising And Field Operations For Nevada Caucuses

The New York Times reports that the Sen. Ted Cruz supporting Super PAC Keep the Promise I, is spending  $573,000 to air two television ads in Nevada ahead of the Republican Caucuses on Feb. 23, two days after the South Carolina GOP Primary. The ads are mostly positive, focusing on Mr. Cruz, but one takes a shot at Sen. Marco Rubio. 

The group also plans to distribute 100,000 mail pieces highlighting Marco Rubio’s record on immigration, cap-and-trade, military spending and Libya:

"You are only as good as the company you keep…" the mailer reads, with Mr. Rubio, a senator from Florida, pictured beside images of Hillary Clinton and Senators Chuck Schumer of New York and Harry Reid of Nevada.

In addition, Keep the Promise 1 has 13 paid staff members and about 75 canvassers in the state and has hired Nathan Emens, a local operative, to oversee its Nevada ground game. Team Cruz is obviously hoping to duplicate its ground game-led come from behind Iowa victory and is using its network of Super PACs to do more than advertise.

According to USA Today, Keep the Promise 1 is spending more than $2 million in Nevada.

The Promise network of Super PACs is expanding. Keep the Promise to Veterans, launched last week and is led by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. This group will focus on veterans' issues and recruit high-profile veterans to back Cruz, like Dakota Meyer, a Marine Corps veteran who received the  Medal of Honor for heroism in Afghanistan.

Cross posted from RedState.

If Trump Didn't Like the Cruz Supreme Trust Ad He Will Have Another Melt Down Over the Donald's Choice Ad

Donald Trump was so unhappy about the Cruz Campaign's Supreme Trust ad that he sent a "cease and desist" letter demanding that the Cruz campaign immediately stop running the ad featuring Trump currently running in South Carolina. During an epic press conference Sen. Ted Cruz rejected Trump's frivolous demands. In its response the Cruz campaign said the ad is not an attempt to mislead the public:

The objective of the ad is precisely the opposite – to provide the voters of South Carolina with important and accurate information so that they can make an informed decision when they go to the polls.

The Cruz response goes on to say that every statement in the ad concerning Mr. Trump’s pro-abortion views comes from Mr. Trump’s own mouth. According to the Cruz campaign, the point of the ad is that they do not believe Mr. Trump’s recent campaign claim that he is pro-life and the voters should not believe Mr. Trump either:

"Mr. Trump’s implausible claim that he is pro-life doesn’t meet a reality test," said Rick Tyler, a campaign spokesman. "His words and actions simply cannot be reconciled. Mr. Trump last week said that Planned Parenthood does do wonderful things, but supporting Planned Parenthood is incompatible with holding the pro-life position Mr. Trump is now claiming."

It's good to see Cruz to respond to the Donald's constant threats to sue.

If Trump didn't care for Supreme Trust ad, he will have another melt down like those he had during the CBS South Carolina Republican Debate over the Donald's Choice ad released Wednesday by the Cruz-supporting
Courageous Conservatives PAC. The ad goes on to reference three names Trump has floated as possible replacements for Justice Scalia. Watch the ad:

Justice Scalia’s death reminds us the next President will pick as many as four Supreme Court Justices and hundreds of other federal judges.

Just who would Donald Trump pick?

One person Trump suggested took Roy Moore off the Alabama Supreme Court for displaying the Ten Commandments.

Another forced Indiana to fund Planned Parenthood.

And one more who threw out New Jersey’s Partial Birth Abortion Ban.

Everything is on the line now: our rights.

Our freedoms. Our America. And the courts are the battleground.

So who do you trust? Who do you trust to fill our federal courts?

Donald Trump with his New York values?

Or Ted Cruz, who won cases before the Supreme Court protecting gun rights, religious freedom and against the World Court.

Saturday’s our last chance South Carolina!

Don’t blow it.

Ted Cruz. For President.

Let’s take our country back. Now. Before It’s Too Late. 

The three judges are Alabama’s former Attorney General Bill Pryor, who in 2003 backed a decision to oust Chief Justice Roy Moore from his position for refusing to follow a federal court order that he remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from the front of the state’s judicial building. Seventh Circuit Judge Diane Sykes, who authored an opinion striking down an Indiana law that would have defunded Planned Parenthood, and Trump’s older sister, Maryanne Trump Barry, who in her first year as an appellate judge for the Third Circuit wrote a decision that overturned a New Jersey law banning late-term abortions.

Cross posted from RedState.

Is Trump Now The Republican's Establishment-Lane Candidate?

Judging by Wednesday's morning headlines about the not necessarily dependable new polling, the main stream media seems to be all set to declare Donald Trump the presumptive Republican nominee. We should be grateful that the legacy press might be just kind enough to wait until the results are called for the South Carolina Republican primary. But should that go Trump's way, it doesn't look like the Fourth Estate will have the self-control to wait until after Tuesday's Nevada GOP Caucuses, let alone the 12 contests to be held on March 1, to make their pronouncement. Whatever happened to waiting till a candidate actually obtained a majority of the delegates before declaring a presumptive nominee?

 

The Washington Post's Philip Bump went so far to declare that Trump "is now the Republican Party’s establishment-lane candidate":

Donald Trump will have led in Real Clear Politics' polling average nationally, save a day or two when he was tied with Ben Carson, for precisely seven months this Saturday -- the day he is likely to win South Carolina's Republican primary on a perhaps-unstoppable run to the nomination.

How'd he do that? Weirdly enough, by becoming the choice of the Republican center -- the group that was supposed to be trying to pick among Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie right about now.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows how the field has evolved since December, back when there were 14 Republicans to ask about, not six. Trump jumped from 28 percent support to 39 percent, essentially absorbing the equivalent support of those eight candidates who dropped out. (Those eight totaled 12 percent of support in December.)

[. . .]

When Christie, Carly Fiorina and all those others dropped out, the long-term beneficiary appears to have been Trump, the candidate who has locked down that less strident wing of the Republican Party to which Bush once aspired.

We saw this morphing of Trump into the Establishment coming. It is happening despite Trump still being the candidate whom the largest number of Republicans find unacceptable, Trump’s unfavorable rating being higher than any Democrat or Republican nominee ever and after months and months of the Establishment saying Trump would not and could not be the nominee because of his bellicose and hateful campaign rhetoric. This is what the GOP Establishment seems to do best these days. They say one thing and then do the opposite. It's just so like the Establishment to choose to back Trump.

 

It pretty much serves the Republican Establishment right that they may now be lumped together with Trump. The Establishment deserves it because they created the environment which a candidate such as The Donald could even become a thing. Sen.Ted Cruz explained how that came to better than anyone last July on the floor of the Senate:

There is a profound disappointment among the American people because we keep winning elections and then we keep getting leaders who don't do anything they promised ...

We've had a Republican majority in both houses of Congress now for about six months. What has that majority done? First thing we did, in December, is we came back and passed a $1 trillion ‘Cromnibus' plan filled with pork and corporate welfare. That was the very first thing we did. Then this Republican majority voted to fund ObamaCare, voted to fund President Obama's unconstitutional executive amnesty. And then leadership rammed through the confirmation of Loretta Lynch as attorney general. Madam President, which of those decisions would be one iota different if Harry Reid were still majority leader? Not a one. Not a one. This Senate operates exactly the same -- the same priorities…

After months of denouncing Trump as if he were a member of the Indian Untouchable caste, the GOP Establishment has warmed up to The Donald and, with the main stream media, seems ready to embrace Trump as Establishment. Now instead of a TEA Party insurrection, we have a mob of middle finger voters supporting Trump.

 

Just one more point. The rise of the new Trump Establishment was also allowed by the pitifully meager effort expended by the main stream media to reveal the  Liberal non-Conservative that Trump is. Rather than do their job on that score, the legacy press just lazily parrots every word spewed from Trump leaving the hard work of pointing out his flip flops evolution on issue after issue to be done by the other candidates' campaigns and the Fifth Estate.

 

Cross posted from RedState.

Trump Campaigns Like A Twitter Troll

 

Image Credit: Sam Fentress released under GFDL and CC ShareAlike

A Twitter Troll is internet slang for a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages online with the deliberate intent of provoking an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.

Pretty much sounds like Donald Trump the presidential candidate. The Donald, behaves just like the Twitter Trolls you have to block because attempting to engage them in a civil discussion is futile. When presented with facts that prove a Twitter Troll wrong they just reply with inflammatory responses usually in the form of an insult or name calling.

This seems to be the only way Trump campaigns. Just look at his troll-like un-presidential behavior during Saturday's CBS South Carolina Republican Presidential debate. How many times did Trump interrupt other candidate calling them liar and spewing other insults? He seems to find it very difficult to respond in a civil manner to a statement he disagreed with, or something that pointed out an issue about which he has been inconsistent or, as Obama would evolved.

Trump continued his un-presidential Twitter Troll behavior in his press conference in Hanahan, SC. Trump went after fellow Republican candidate for president Sen.Ted Cruz, saying he is "a very unstable person" and "desperate":

I have never, ever met a person that lies more than Ted Cruz. I have never, ever seen anything like it.

QUESTION: Mr. Trump, your comments about George W. Bush and 9/11, Ted Cruz said today that was like Michael Moore, and says that you're more on the left.

TRUMP: Ted Cruz is desperate, look, I think Ted's a very unstable guy...I must tell you one thing about Ted Cruz that I can say, only to a minor extent, for comparison to the other politicians, I haven't been doing this long, I've been in it since June 16, but I will tell you, I have never, ever met a person that lies more than Ted Cruz. I have never ever seen anything like it.

[. . .]

QUESTION: You said today you think [Cruz] is "unstable." What do you mean?

I think he's an unstable person. I watch him, I see him. He's a good debater but he can't talk.

TRUMP: He's a very unstable person, that's just my opinion.

QUESTION: Too unstable to be president?

TRUMP: Yes.

Trump gets away with this troll-like un-presidential misconduct because the main stream media doesn't call him on it. The press just regurgitates what Trump says no matter how vile or vulgar. Consider the many times Trump threatens to sue Cruz. Why doesn't the mainstream media ask him why he always threatens, but never sues.

One has to wonder if Trump would have ever been the front runner if he had to compete for press attention like the other candidates instead of having every outrageous thing he says simply repeated by the press because the outrageousness sells.

Cross posted from RedState.